Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 7, 2014
One thing that we learned from the earnings conference calls which were conducted over the past two weeks: the domestic steel mills will be entering 2015 with all of their blast furnaces online, maintenance completed and (hopefully) running well. Barring any unforeseen circumstances we should have plenty of domestic supply going into the traditionally strong first quarter. The question now will be will demand match up well with supply and how will the flood of imports that we have seen during the second half of 2014 impact the supply/demand fundamentals?
Iron ore prices continue to sag below $80/dmt (dry metric ton) in the spot markets in China. One year ago 62% Fe ore was selling on the spot market at $135.9/dmt (The Steel Index). At the beginning of the year ore was $135.0/dmt (1/2/2014). Ore broke through $100/dmt on May 19th when it traded at $98.5/dmt. Spot prices broke $90/dmt on June 16th when 62% Fe fines traded at $89.0/dmt. It took until September 22nd before ore broke through the $80 mark when it hit $79.8/dmt. Last Friday the spot price was $75.5/dmt and many are forecasting ore could hit $70/dmt.
A reminder that our next Steel 101 workshop is in January. A workshop for those new to the industry, changing positions or just wanting to learn more about the process of making steel, understanding how different qualities are produced, how steel is rolled, sold (flat and long products) and what impacts pricing. We also spend time looking at what is available online to help you assess the markets, whether you are a brand new salesperson or the head of marketing. Our next workshop will be held on January 20 and 21, 2015 in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina which is right next to Charleston, South Carolina and pretty close to Berkeley where we will be taking a mill tour compliments of Nucor. Registration is open and just waiting for you (or one of your people) to sign up…
I am in New York City on Monday through Wednesday of this week. On Thursday and Friday I will be in Savannah, Georgia attending the AWMI conference. In my absence Diana and Brett will be keeping SMU HQ staffed and ready to serve our customers. If you need to reach me you can get me by email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update. Tell your friends and steel contacts about us…
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Some of you have told me that the current market feels about as crazy as early 2021 when demand snapped back after the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Others have said it might be more like late February/early March 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – and, in the process, caused […]
Final Thoughts
To say we’ve entered a “Brave New World” since Jan. 20 might be an exaggeration, but we’ve definitely entered a different one.
Final Thoughts
I think it’s fair to say that the last few weeks – and last week especially – have been among the most intense for any of us covering steel (or aluminum).
Final Thoughts
A look at how SMU survey respondents are reacting to President Trump's recent actions on tariffs.
Final Thoughts
A lot of the changes basically entail rolling back what I’ll call, for fun, Section 232 Lite. S232 Lite resulted from watering down what I’ll call OG S232 – the one first imposed in March 2018 - with exemptions and exclusions over the years. Now, OG Section 232, is back with its across-the-board 25% tariffs against everyone.