Tidal Wave of Imports Continues: South Korea Leaps Over Canada as #1 Exporting Country

At first look, the June license data is showing a continuation of the surge in foreign steel with the data suggesting an import number in excess of 3.5 million tons.

To put this into perspective:

Business conditions this year are perhaps up 3-6 percent as an average. Some industries are reporting business conditions as being flat while others are up by as much as 8 percent.

Last year at this time the 12 month moving average for imports was 2.63 million net tons. The difference between last year and this year is 2014 imports are up 14.1 percent.

Last year at this time the 3 month moving average for imports was 2.68 million net tons. Last year the trend for imports was relatively stable as shown by the 3MMA compared to the 12MMA.  In contrast, this year’s import 3 month moving average is 3.419 million net tons or up 35.8 percent compared to one year ago.

Looking at total imports from last May were 2.84 million net tons and the expected difference being 44.2 percent or 1.25 million tons more this year than last.

Semi-finished steel last May was 664,000 net tons and had been climbing from the previous two months. Semi-finished imports this year for May are expected to exceed 1 million net tons. Semi’s are forecast to be up 62.1 percent in one year.

There has been a lot of press about oil country tubular goods. The South Koreans are helping make the domestic mill’s case as their OCTG shipments to the United States are beyond comparison. The May data indicates that South Korea will have exported over 200,000 net tons during that one month alone. June data is pointing to another big month for South Korean OCTG exports. Last May South Korea shipped 64,255 net tons and the entire world shipped 243,483 net tons.