Contributor: Stephen Miller

The role of dealer resistance has had many ups and down over the last decades. At times dealer resistance to ferrous scrap pricing was justified and had positive effects on prices.

The US domestic ferrous scrap market had a rough 2024, despite optimism as the year started.

The prices being paid by US-based buyers has continued to decline as ferrous raw material demand across the globe remains weak.

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap narrowed slightly in December, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.

Last week, the export community in the Atlantic Basin was licking its wounds over a Northern European sale at a two-year low of $325 per gross ton (gt) for HMS 80/20 to Turkey.

The scrap market in the US finally settled on Monday with one of the nation’s largest steelmakers issuing its price bids.

The US scrap market has begun forming for December shipment and prices seem to be sagging so far.

The BRICS countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and South Africa met last month, along with several other associated nations. Among the topics discussed was the potential establishment of an alternative world currency to compete with the US dollar.

The ferrous scrap markets both here and abroad are displaying a definite lack of enthusiasm as we head into the holiday season.

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap remained the same in November as both tags were at the levels seen a month earlier, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.

The pig iron markets have retreated over the last two months amidst a concerted effort by US-based buyers to drive down prices to more closely follow the lower domestic scrap prices.

The US and Canadian ferrous scrap markets for November have not settled following the US presidential election. There doesn’t seem to be a key indicator as to why November prices haven’t settled yet. For the ferrous scrap market, I can’t see a big change occurring. Nothing short-term, anyways. The mills don’t seem to have a view, either, or at least they aren’t showing a lean in any direction.

As we await the formation of November’s domestic ferrous scrap market, all the recent action is in the export market. However, it is debatable whether events in this arena are influencing our US market other than psychologically. This opinion has been expressed by several sources that I have approached.

The ferrous scrap market for November is starting to look more like the several preceding months.

The recycled iron and steel markets seem to be “ho hum” at this stage of October. The word on the street is strong sideways, which is really not a bullish sentiment compared to the optimism of two weeks ago.

Last week, US mills entered the scrap market, albeit later in the month than usual. Now we know why. They were trying to buy sideways (whatever that means anymore).

The US scrap market has been in a steady decline for the first nine months of this year. As we enter Q4, there seems to be scant hope things will change in October. However, some players are seeing a bit of light after this month, depending on steelmaker appetite for scrap.

SMU is pleased to share the latest news from the global pig iron markets from our sister publication, Recycled Metals Update.

Great Lakes-area mills have entered the September ferrous scrap market in a surprisingly prompt manner.

The basic pig iron (BPI) market remains virtually unchanged despite perceived weakness in other ferrous materials, such as scrap, billets, HRC and iron ore.

The US ferrous scrap market has essentially traded sideways for August. It may be too early to judge how much traction these prices will have with the trade.

It’s buy week again for ferrous scrap. US steelmakers are expected to offer their prices for August shipment this week. Most of the dealers and brokers RMU has quizzed believe the market has enough traction to hold sideways and even go up.

RMU contacted ferrous market players in both the Southeastern region and the Midwest regions about the direction of the ferrous scrap market for August. One executive in the Great Lakes district confirmed the flow of shredder feed and obsolescent scrap did not change in July. All his orders for shredded scrap have been delivering to the mills without issue. He thinks shredded scrap can trade sideways from July in the Midwest.

The prices for the July market weren’t settled until July 8 and now we are approaching the formation of the August market.

The ferrous scrap export market on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of North America has maintained its pricing for several months despite continuing declines in domestic markets.

After celebrating the July 4th holiday, let’s have a look back at the first half of 2024.

Sources contacted by RMU have delivered a bleak forecast for the market’s direction in July, potentially extending into August.

The US scrap market is quiet as we pass through June. Speculation about the direction of July is mixed, with most sentiment neutral or bearish. The concerns are about demand during the summer months. There are still several planned outages and other cutbacks at various mills that could limit overall demand for recycled steel scrap.

As the scrap market for June settles at lowered levels, let’s look at the situation for exports of ferrous scrap from the US East and Gulf coasts. Despite declines in the North American ferrous markets over the last two months, export prices have remained range-bound within a tight trading window. After a brief decline last […]

The suspense about the drop in ferrous scrap pricing for June has ended with Delta, Ohio-based North Star BlueScope entering the market at significantly lower numbers than most predicted.