Sheet prices continue to inch higher. That’s a welcome development for many. But it’s also a far cry from the price surge many predicted about a month ago. Remember the theory that supported a spring surge: Sheet prices would soar on a combination of mill outages, stable-to-strong demand, restocking, mill price increases, and (potentially) trade action against Mexico as well.
Nucor plans to publish a weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil beginning on Monday, April 8, according to a press release and letters to customers. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said its published HR price would be derived from “both quantitative and qualitative data” in the letter to customers on Thursday, April 4.
You might have noticed that SMU has been publishing more articles about scrap in recent months. That was no accident. In fact, we’ve found enough of an audience that CRU, our parent company, has decided to launch a new publication – Recycled Metals Update, or RMU. It cover both ferrous and nonferrous scrap. RMU’s website is here. You can go there now and request a 30-day free trial. It’s that simple.
Nucor intends to keep plate prices unchanged with the open of its May order book, according to a letter to customers dated Thursday, March 28. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the announcement would be effective with new orders received on Friday, March 29.
SMU latest' steel market survey paints the picture of sheet market that has hit bottom and begun to rebound. Lead times are extending again after stabilizing earlier this month. Mills are far less willing to negotiate lower sheet prices - even if there are still deals to be had on plate, according to the steel buyers we canvassed.
SMU’s sheet prices firmed up modestly this week, even as CME hot rolled futures declined. What gives? My channel checks suggest that demand remains stable and that buyers have returned to the market following new HR base prices announced by mills earlier this month. I’m looking forward to seeing whether lead times, which have stabilized, will start extending. SMU will have more to share on that front when we release updated lead time figures on Thursday. As for HR futures, what a reversal! As David Feldstein wrote last Thursday, bulls expected mill price increase announcements. And we briefly saw the May contract climb as high as ~$1,000 per short ton (st).
Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on SMU’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 3, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free. You can register here. A recording of the webinar and the slide deck are available only SMU members.
I’ve had questions from some of you lately about how we should think of the spread between hot-rolled (HR) coil prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated product. Let’s assume that mills are intent on holding the line at least at $800 per short ton (st) for HR. The norm for HR-CR/coated spreads had been about $200 per short ton (st). That would suggest CR and coated base prices should be ~$1,000/st. Good luck finding anyone offering that.
SMU’s price for hot-rolled (HR) inched lower this week. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if we start to see prices and lead times move higher in the weeks ahead. The modest declines in HR this week are probably the result of lingering deals cut at “old” prices, as sometimes happens after mill price increases. But those deals will probably be out of the market soon if they aren’t already. So why do I float the idea of higher prices? Some big buys have been placed. It reminds me a little of what we saw last fall, when people restocked in anticipation of higher prices once the UAW strike was resolved.
Join SMU’s next Community Chat webinar with Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries – the largest independent steel pipe and tube manufacturer in North America. The webinar will be on Wednesday, March 20, at 11 a.m. ET. It’s free for all to attend. A recording will be available to SMU members. You can register here.
Reaction to the price announcements last week by domestic mills varied just a little depending on who you were speaking to. I heard rumblings before the announcements that a price hike of $100 per short ton (st) was coming. After the announcements were made, I had some questions as to whether they were increases at all.
ArcelorMittal is targeting a minimum base price for hot-rolled (HR) coil of $825 per ton. The Luxembourg-based steelmaker said the new floor price was effective immediately in a letter to its commercial team dated Friday, March 8.
A Detroit-area mill entered the scrap market on Thursday offering down $70 per gross ton (gt) on #1 busheling. And Nucor announced a minimum base price of $825 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. What's the best way to interpret would could be read as contradictory trends?
Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs on Thursday announced target minimum base prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil. Both said the moves were effective immediately.
Sheet and plate prices this week continued the downward trend they’ve been on for most of 2024. Some market sources predicted that a wave of spring maintenance outages would help to stabilize lead times and prices in the weeks ahead – especially should service center inventories, high at the beginning of the year, come down meaningfully.
A clear consensus has emerged among respondents to SMU’s latest steel market survey that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will bottom this month or in April. Seventy-five percent of respondents to our latest survey think that prices will find a floor before May as the chart below shows:
I want to give a big shoutout to the good folks at the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association (FMA) for inviting me to their annual conference this week in Clearwater, Fla. I also want to give a special thanks to the FMA for awarding SMU founder John Packard with a lifetime achievement award – on that also gave me a chance to catch up with my old boss in person.
Worthington Steel President and CEO Geoff Gilmore will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, March 6, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording is available only to SMU subscribers. You can register here.
What are some “Black Swans” to watch out for? With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, your mind might understandably move to conflicts overseas. Here is one closer to home to consider: US trade relations with Mexico taking a turn for the worse. I mention that because the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) dropped a (virtual) bombshell earlier this month.
Domestic prices have been sliding since the beginning of the year, and I don’t see any obvious reasons why the slide might stop this week. But let’s put the timing of a bottom aside for a minute. The question among some of you seems to be whether we’ll see another price spike, or at least a “dead-cat bounce,” before the typical summer doldrums kick in.
At SMU, our goal is not to tell you what to think but to keep the conversation going. We asked you in our survey this week what you were seeing when it comes to steel prices, demand, imports, and wildcards. In your own words, with minimal editing, here’s what some of you in the SMU community shared with us this week.
I’ve had discussions with some of you lately about where and when sheet prices might bottom. Some of you say that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won’t fall below $800 per short ton (st). Others tell me that bigger buyers aren’t interested unless they can get something that starts with a six. Obviously a lot depends on whether we're talking 50 tons or 50,000 tons. I've even gotten some guff about how the drop in US prices is happening only because we’re talking about it happening.
We’ve all heard a lot about mill “discipline” following a wave of consolidation over the last few years. That discipline is often evident when prices are rising, less so when they are falling. I remember hearing earlier this year that mills weren’t going to let hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fall below $1,000 per short ton (st). Then not below $900/st. Now, some of you tell me that HR prices in the mid/high-$800s are the “1-800 price” – widely available to regular spot buyers. So what comes next, and will mills “hold the line” in the $800s?
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices have fallen below $900 per short ton (st) on average for the first time since early November. SMU’s HR price stands at $875/st on average, down $65/st from a week ago and down $170/st from the beginning of the year.
Everyone knows the old saying that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Just because it’s a cliché doesn’t mean that it’s wrong. A lot of inked has been spilled trying to figure out why prices are falling now. I thought it might be as simple as this: Market dynamics in the fourth quarter (UAW strike, companies buying ahead of an anticipated post-strike price spike, etc.) pulled forward restocking activity that typically happens in the first quarter.
Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on SMU’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 21, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for all. A recording of the webinar and the slide deck are free for SMU members.
What a difference a month makes. There are a few full bulls left in the room, but their numbers are dwindling. We’ll release results of our full steel market survey tomorrow afternoon. I took a sneak peak at the data on Thursday. And more people than I expected think that US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will be in the $700s per short ton (st) two months from now. Vanishingly few think prices will be above $1,000/st in mid-April.
Algoma Steel has restarted its blast furnace and resumed steelmaking at its mill in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario.
Sheet prices have fallen again this week on shorter lead times, higher imports, and potentially higher inventories. (We’ll see for sure when we release our service center shipment and inventory data next week.) I remember reporting almost exactly the same thing about a month ago and getting a fair amount of pushback. Not so much these days.
The pace of sheet price declines accelerated this week as steel buyers said that domestic mills were competing against each other while also coping with higher-than-expected import volumes. “They are getting rid of the fluff. When you can pit 2-3 mills against each other, the fat margins get cut,” one industry source said.