Contributor: Michael Cowden

Nearly 800 people have registered to attend Steel Summit on Aug. 26-28 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta.

The conventional wisdom is that sheet prices will trend down for the next few weeks (maybe the next two months) before rising again in August – around when lead times stretch into the busier fall months. We see that reflected in our survey results and in market chatter. And there are plenty of data points to choose from if you want to support of that position.

We’ve been writing a lot about sheet prices, and those for hot-rolled (HR) in particular, coming down. Here's one thing that hasn't dropped: The wide spread between HR and cold-rolled (CR) prices. That's what's in a chart below. And I'm using it as a rough proxy for galv and G'lume base prices as well

Where do sheet prices go from here? How is the state of steel demand? And is the dip in prices we've seen just a case of the summer doldrums, or is it something more significant?

The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact info@steelmarketupdate.com.

It feels like the summer doldrums arrived a little earlier than usual this year. I know there had been rumors of a price hike. The prospect of a sharply lower June scrap trade probably didn't help the chances of that actually happening.

ArcelorMittal plans to continue to invest and expand its operations in North America, a senior company executive said in an exclusive interview with SMU. “People were talking about our demise in North America or maybe our exit. And I want to emphasize that nothing could be further from the truth,” said Brad Davey, executive vice president and head of corporate development at the company.

US sheet prices remained on a downward course again this week amid chatter in some corners about a potential broader slowdown in demand. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price now stands at $730 per short ton (st) on average, down $20/st from last week and down $115/st from a recent high of $845/st in early April. […]

U.S. Steel Chief Commercial Officer Kenneth Jaycox has decided to leave the company, a company spokeswoman confirmed on Tuesday. Jaycox will transition his responsibilities to Jim Bruno from now through the end of June. Effective July 1, Bruno will be in charge of the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker’s commercial operations, she said. Bruno, who joined U.S. Steel […]

Nucor will increase galvanized and galvannealed coating extras effective July 6, 2024.

There seems to be more question than usual about which way prices will go over the next few weeks. There is talk in some corners that Nucor’s announced $760 per short ton (st) for HR through mid-May, and subsequent increases marked a public attempt to call a price bottom. (Our price announcement calendar here is […]

Sheet prices slipped again this week on a combination of moderate demand, increased imports, and higher import volumes.

Here’s something I didn’t expect to see this week: SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest point since August 2020.

Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking at least $800 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil with the opening of its July order book. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the move was effective immediately in a letter to customers on Thursday, May 23. Recall that Cliffs announced in April that it would publish a monthly HR price. The […]

Veteran StoneX futures broker Spencer Johnson will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 29, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.

Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.

CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 15, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.

Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)

Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)

CRU principal analyst Ryan McKinley will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 15, at 11 am ET. McKinley is instrumental in determining CRU’s benchmark hot-rolled (HR) coil price. He’ll discuss his role, his background in steel, and how the index works.

U.S. Steel posted slightly lower Q1’24 earnings as stronger earnings from its sheet mills were partially offset by a weaker performance from it tubular division. All told, the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker reported Q1’24 earnings of $171 million. That's down 14.1% from $199 million in Q1’23 on sales that fell 6.9% to $4.16 billion in the same comparison.

ArcelorMittal posted a narrower Q1’24 profit compared to Q1’23 but remained optimistic about steel's long-term demand prospects.

Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.

What a difference a month makes. In late March, it seemed like the US hot-rolled (HR) coil market was poised to cycle upward. Large buyers had re-entered the market and placed big orders earlier in the month. Several outages were underway or upcoming. And expectations were that lead times would continue to extend. Cliffs said […]

I’ve gotten some questions lately about whether the huge gap between domestic hot-rolled coil (HR) prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated is sustainable. I remember being asked similar questions about the wide spread between HR and plate that developed in early 2022. I thought at the time that there was no way that spread could hold. Turned out, I was wrong. That was humbling. And so I’m not going to make any bold predictions this time.

Algoma Steel Inc. expects to wrap up a previously announced outage on its plate mill by the end of this month, a company spokeswoman said. The outage is part of the Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker’s $130 million CAD ($95 million USD) modernization project. It began in mid-April.

Hybar CEO David Stickler will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, May 1, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available to SMU members. You can register here.

We've used the word "unprecedented" a lot over the last four years to describe steel price volatility. Over the last two months – despite earlier predictions of a price surge - we've seen unprecedented stability.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. continued to lose money in the first quarter, with the steelmaker blaming the loss in part on the idling of its tinplate facility in Weirton, W.Va.

I was in Las Vegas last week for ISRI’s annual convention. I like Vegas. I’ve had some fun there over the years. (I was married there nearly 20 years ago. We're still together.) And last week was no exception. So let’s start with the big news from Sin City. When the recycled materials industry meets for the big event next year, it will be under the banner of "ReMA" – not "ISRI".