Everyone knows the old saying that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Just because it’s a cliché doesn’t mean that it’s wrong. A lot of inked has been spilled trying to figure out why prices are falling now. I thought it might be as simple as this: Market dynamics in the fourth quarter (UAW strike, companies buying ahead of an anticipated post-strike price spike, etc.) pulled forward restocking activity that typically happens in the first quarter.
Mercury Resources CEO Anton Posner will be the featured speaker on SMU’s next Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 21, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for all. A recording of the webinar and the slide deck are free for SMU members.
What a difference a month makes. There are a few full bulls left in the room, but their numbers are dwindling. We’ll release results of our full steel market survey tomorrow afternoon. I took a sneak peak at the data on Thursday. And more people than I expected think that US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices will be in the $700s per short ton (st) two months from now. Vanishingly few think prices will be above $1,000/st in mid-April.
Algoma Steel has restarted its blast furnace and resumed steelmaking at its mill in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario.
Sheet prices have fallen again this week on shorter lead times, higher imports, and potentially higher inventories. (We’ll see for sure when we release our service center shipment and inventory data next week.) I remember reporting almost exactly the same thing about a month ago and getting a fair amount of pushback. Not so much these days.
The pace of sheet price declines accelerated this week as steel buyers said that domestic mills were competing against each other while also coping with higher-than-expected import volumes. “They are getting rid of the fluff. When you can pit 2-3 mills against each other, the fat margins get cut,” one industry source said.
ArcelorMittal indicated that a sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel could lead to it taking full control of AM/NS Calvert, its joint venture sheet mill in Alabama. "Typically, in such situations, when there is a selling partner, they sell it to the other partner in the joint venture, right. So I could imagine such a situation would develop,” Mittal said.
There seems to be bit of high-stakes chicken going on in the domestic sheet market. Prices have been moving lower for most of the year, and our hot-rolled (HR) coil price on Tuesday fell below $1,000 per short ton (st) on average. Crossing that threshold does not seem to have resulted in a flurry of buying activity.
ArcelorMittal swung to a loss in the fourth quarter largely because of costs associated with a deadly coal mining disaster last year in Kazakhstan. The Luxembourg-based steelmaker sold its Kazakhstan operations in December and no longer owns and operates coal mines as a result of the move, according to comments released along with earnings data on Thursday.
It was another steady drip lower, down $20/st to $980/st. In other words, the kind of on-and-off declines we’ve been seeing since the start of the year.
Sheet prices fell across the board this week as SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price slipped below $1,000 per short ton (st) on average for the first time since November.
Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research at Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat. The chat will be on Wednesday, Feb. 7, at 11 a.m. ET. You can join the ~600 people who have already registered here.
SMU’s latest survey results make it clear that the sheet market has hit an inflection point and headed lower. But while some market participants think that sheet prices might bottom within the next month or so, others expect a more protracted downturn.
Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research at Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat on Feb. 7.
I thought Nippon Steel’s $14.1-billion deal for U.S. Steel might become a political football in this year’s presidential election. Now there is little doubt that it will after Trump told reporters in Washington, D.C., earlier this week that he would “absolutely” block the transaction – and that he would do so “instantaneously.”
Sheet prices were mixed this week, with hot-rolled (HR) coil unchanged but cold-rolled and coated prices down.
I’m writing these final thoughts from the JW Marriott in Tampa. And I’m looking forward to seeing some of you reading this in just a few hours at the opening networking reception of the Tampa Steel Conference. Nearly 550 people will be there – a new record for the event. If you’re looking for things […]
The Tampa Steel Conference is just a few days away. Here are some topics I’m looking forward to learning more about during the proceedings on Monday and Tuesday. For starters, we’ll have about a month of 2024 under our belt when we convene on Sunday. How does that compare to what we thought the start of the year would look like? And what’s the outlook for the balance of the year?
U.S. Steel has idled its USS-UPI LLC subsidiary in Pittsburg, Calif., a company spokesperson confirmed. The idling happened in December, they said in an email to SMU.
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) reported lower fourth quarter 2023 earnings on Tuesday but predicted good times ahead in 2024. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker posted a Q4’23 profit of $424.3 million, down 33.2% from a profit of $634.9 million in Q4’22 on sales that fell 12.3% to $4.2 billion.
Domestic sheet prices slipped again this week, marking the first week of consecutive declines for hot-rolled (HR) coil since September. SMU’s HR price now stands at $1,000 per short ton (st) on average, down $25/st from last week and down $45/st from the start of the year.
Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker Algoma Steel said its blast furnace could be down for approximately two weeks following an incident at its coke batteries over the weekend. “We expect some impact on shipments, the extent of which will depend on the timeline to resume blast furnace operations,” the Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario-based company said
CRU principal analyst Erik Hedborg, who has deep experience in iron ore and in pellets, will be the featured speaker on our next SMU Community Chat.
This latest SMU steel market survey is a snapshot of a sheet market inflecting lower. A significant 43% of survey respondents said that the hot-rolled (HR) coil market has already peaked. Compare that to only 8% when we released our last steel market survey on Jan. 5.
There seems to be a growing consensus that the US sheet market has peaked at a high level and could begin losing ground from here. Whether declines happen quickly or whether sheet prices bop around at current levels for a few weeks more is the primary question.
US hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fell noticeably this week for the first time since late September. SMU’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,025 per ton on average, down $25 per ton from last week. Cold-rolled (CR) coil was unchanged at $1,325 per ton.
Bloomberg has reported that Nippon Steel’s $14.1-billion deal for U.S. Steel might not close until 2025 – well after the Q2/Q3 2024 close date both companies have guided toward. That’s because a national security review of the deal ($14.9 billion if you include the USS debt Nippon Steel would assume) by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) could take longer than initially expected
It’s been a sloppy start to the year for domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and ferrous scrap markets. One of the loudest things to happen in HR this year might be something that didn’t happen at all. Namely, Nucor didn’t follow competitor Cleveland-Cliffs higher when Cliffs announced a price hike to start the year.
I expected that we’d start off January with prime scrap prices modestly up if for no other reason than industrial activity typically slows down over the holidays. And mills’ appetite for scrap typically increases in anticipation of stronger Q1 order activity.
Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices remain in the holding pattern they've been in since mid-December, according to SMU pricing archives.