Contributor: Michael Cowden

Institute for Supply Management CEO Tom Derry will join SMU for our next Community Chat on Wednesday, July 23, at 11 a.m. ET (10 a.m. CT)

Sheet and plate prices slipped this week on so-so demand, sideways scrap prices, and chatter that certain mills were making unsolicited calls looking for tons.

CRU analysts Thais Terzian and Frank Nikolic will be the featured guests on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, July 9, at 11 am ET.

I’m not sure how many different ways I can write that it’s been a quiet market ahead of Independence Day. There are variations on that theme. I’ve heard everything from the ominous “eerily quiet” to "getting better" and even the occasional “blissfully unaware” (because I’m enjoying my vacation).

US mills shipped slightly less steel in May than in April, according to the latest figures from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Sheet and plate prices were little changed in the shortened week ahead of Independence Day, according to SMU’s latest check of the market.

CRU analysts Thais Terzian and Frank Nikolic will be the featured guests on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, July 9, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available to SMU subscribers.

Atlas Holdings said it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Evraz North America (Evraz NA). The Greenwich, Conn.-based private equity firm said it expects the deal for the Chicago-based steelmaker to close in the second quarter of 2025 subject to various closing condition.

Maybe some of this uncertainty will get ironed out ahead of Liberation Day tariffs resetting higher rates on July 9. But if I had to place a wager, it would be on more drama and last-minute brinksmanship - whether it comes to the Liberation Day tariffs or the various Section 232s that are in the works.

CRU analysts Thais Terzian and Frank Nikolic will be the featured guests on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, July 9, at 11 am ET.

Prices for steel sheet slipped this week despite Section 232 tariffs remaining at 50% and a US strike on nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend.

Not many people in the North American steel market had direct US involvement in another Middle East conflict on their bingo card. Prices weren't expected to shoot higher unless something unexpected happened. That unexpected something has now happened. And there is talk of oil at $100 per barrel. What does that mean for steel?

We’ll have a lot to talk about because construction is at the intersection of so many of today’s hot-button issues. The main question: Will construction thrive or dive in the rest of ’25? (Nothing wrong with a rhyme, even in serious times.)

The actions, which includes tariffs, are necessary to protect the Canadian market from global overcapacity. They are also needed because other countries have redirected material to Canada as a result of higher US tariffs, Carney said.

Getting back to the price increases I mentioned at the top of this article, to what extent are they aimed at raising prices and to what extent are they aimed at stopping the bleeding that was happening in the second half of May, before President Trump announced the 50% tariff?

Cleveland-Cliffs plans to increase prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $950 per short ton (st) with the opening of its July spot order book. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the price hike was effective immediately in a letter to customers dated Monday.

President Trump has approved the sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel, according to an executive order signed on Friday, June 13. Both the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker and the Japanese steelmaker cheered the development.

Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

We’ll have a lot to talk about because construction is at the intersection of so many of today’s hot-button issues. The main question: Will construction thrive or dive in the rest of ’25? (Nothing wrong with a rhyme, even in serious times.)

Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Both current and future scrap sentiment as measured by SMU’s Scrap Market Survey are little changed from last month. The relative stability might reflect June’s sideways settlement. Both measures remain below where they were earlier this year.

Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research for Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat. The webinar will be on Wednesday, June 11, at 11 am ET. It’s free to attend.

I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President, and CEO Lourenco Goncalves said he would keep one mill idled and still plans to idle another despite increased protections from Section 232 tariffs doubling to 50%.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening signed a proclamation that officially doubled Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. There was one exception: Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from the United Kingdom will remain at 25%, according to a fact sheet published by the White House.

Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves offered full-throated support for Section 232 tariffs on imported steel being doubled to 50%. And the top executive of the Cleveland-based steelmaker said the steel industry wanted to see as few exceptions as possible to the tariffs.

Section 232 tariffs of 50% on imported steel will go into effect on Wednesday with few exceptions, according to a top White House official.

Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research for Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat. Timna has coined Sheet Storm, Galv Galore, and Rebarmageddon. Her forecasts and insights are always though provoking. And she’s not afraid to speak her mind. So it's no surprise that she's one of our most popular guests!

I sort of expected big news last Friday and over the long, Memorial Day weekend. Because that's become more the norm than the exception for steel this year. Sure enough, Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday afternoon that he had given his blessing to a “partnership” between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel. And then over the weekend we had market moving new on tariffs, this time involving the EU.