Contributor: Michael Cowden

Sheet prices trended sideways to modestly up this week in a market that appears to be in “wait-and-see” mode.

More than 1,400 of you are now signed to attend Steel Summit – which kicks off next week at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. We are very close to beating last year’s record attendance. So, if you’re on the fence, help us be part of steel history again – register here!

Lead times for hot-rolled coil and plate have moved out a little, according to our latest survey data. Brett Linton has the details here. I think that might reflect some restocking and a host of fall maintenance outages – many of which are happening in September/October. But lead times aren't galloping away like some of the more bullish corners of the market might have hoped. And those for cold-rolled and coated products are largely unchanged.

I asked in a prior Final Thoughts where some of you thought Nucor’s weekly spot HR price would land. One opinion: $720 per short ton (st). That would allow the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker to one up competitor Cleveland-Cliffs and to re-establish its position as a market leader.

SMU has adjusted its sheet momentum indicator from neutral to higher for the first time since early April. The shift comes on the back of price hikes for leading sheet mills Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs.

It might be the dog days of summer. But it’s been a newsy week for steel. Let’s start on the trade front, where we had a big decision in a case before the Commerce Department about Vietnam’s market status. Ethan Bernard covered the news. Commerce determined that Vietnam remained a “non-market economy,” or NME, based on factors such as government control over private property, labor conditions, and one-party rule. What’s also notable, and which Wiley trade attorney Alan Price points out in a good column on the matter, is that Commerce’s decision cannot be appealed.

U.S. Steel posted significantly lower second-quarter profits on falling prices and start-up costs at its Big River Steel (BRS) campus in Osceola, Ark.

Cleveland-Cliffs said on Wednesday that it would seek at least $700 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said it made the move "due to ongoing market developments." The company said the increase was effective immediately for HR orders for September.

What a difference a week makes! SMU has shifted its sheet momentum indicators from “lower” to “neutral”. And we’ll be on the lookout for evidence of higher prices in the weeks ahead.

Nearly 1,200 people have registered for SMU Steel Summit, which is less than a month away now. That means we’re still on pace to meet or exceed last year’s record attendance despite a tough flat-rolled steel market over the last few months. So, a big thank you to everyone who already plans to go for your continued support. If you haven’t booked travel yet, don’t miss out on one of the greatest shows in steel – register here. (You can also check out the latest agenda here.)

Cleveland-Cliffs announced on Friday that it would seek $670 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. The steelmaker said the move was effectively immediately. It coincides with the opening of the company’s HR order book for September.

SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?

Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.

SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.

Nucor recording lower second quarter earnings on falling steel prices. And the Charlotte, N.C.-based predicted that profits would be lower still in the third quarter, primarily because of weaker results from its steel mills divisions.

Nucor kept its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil unchanged at $650 per short ton (st) this week. HR prices for CSI, the company's sheet subsidiary in California, held steady at $720/st. Note that sheet prices on the West Coast are typically higher than those east of the Rocky Mountains.

Reibus International Inc. CEO and Chairman Jared Rowe will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar.

I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).

There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!

SMU’s hot-rolled coil price fell to $640 per short ton (st) on average on Tuesday. That’s down $10/st from last week and marks the lowest point for HR prices since December 2022, according to our pricing archives. SMU’s HR price is now $5/ton below 2023’s low of $645/st, which occurred against the backdrop of a United Auto Workers (UAW) union strike.

Nucor dropped its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil to $650 per short ton, down $20/st from last week. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker also said base prices for HR from CSI, its subsidiary in California, would be $720/st. That’s a $30/st decrease from $750/st a week ago.

There are a lot of rumors swirling around the steel market over the last couple of weeks. Chief among them was that we might see a price hike after Independence Day. Another concerns a key detail in the new Section 232 agreement with Mexico. Namely, steel imported from Brazil into Mexico. Of particular interest is its potential implication for slabs imported from Brazil, rolled in Mexico, and then exported to the US.

Reibus International Inc. CEO and Chairman Jared Rowe will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar. The webinar will take place on July 24 at 11 am ET. You can register here. The live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.

The Mexican government said on Thursday that it had negotiated a temporary carve out for Brazilian steel in recently updated Section 232 rules. Mexico said that the pact would stretch until 2027, by which point all steel exported to the US would have to me “melted and poured” within North America.

It’s been a slow start to the week as far as news goes, something you’d expect ahead of a shortened Independence Day week. That said, it’s not as if transactions have completely ground to a halt. (Prices continue to drift lower.) And while news might be slow, rumors of low-priced deals, price hikes, and trade cases seem to have filled that void.

Veteran investment bankers Vince Pappalardo and Andy Pappas will be the featured guests on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, July 10, at 11 am ET (10 am CT). The live webinar is free to attend for all who register. A recording will be available only to SMU members. You can register here.

It was great to have Gary Stein, CEO of Triple-S Steel, join SMU for a Community Chat earlier this week. (Btw, you can find a record of the webinar here.) We covered a lot of ground. From Andrew Carnegie and the Johnstown Flood to the current steel market and the state of domestic manufacturing broadly speaking. One thing that stuck with me was how unevenly construction spending appears to be on “green” initiatives and other key items funded by infrastructure spending, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS Act.

US sheet prices continue to fall, with SMU’s average hot-rolled (HR) coil price now at $670 per short ton (st). Prices for cold-rolled and coated products are now in the mid/high $900s/st. As I noted in my last Final thoughts, the consensus among our readers is that prices will bottom out in July. And that makes intuitive sense. Lead times in mid/late July should be stretching into the typically busier fall months. The question then is where prices bottom.

Many of our contacts remain bearish about the very short-term direction of steel prices. But a consensus seems to be forming, according to our latest survey results, that a bottom will occur in July. Consensus is also that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won't fall below $600 per short ton (st).

The next SMU Community Chat will be Wednesday, June 26, at 11 am ET (10 am CT) with Gary Stein, CEO of Triple-S Steel Holdings Inc. The webinar is free to attend. A recording will be available to SMU members. You can register here.