Contributor: Michael Cowden

There are markets where the headlines and the prices are both crazy. This does not appear to be one of them, at least not yet.

Flack Global Metals (FGM) Founder and CEO Jeremy Flack will sit down with SMU for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) launched a strike just after midnight on Tuesday at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. The work stoppage spans from New England to New Orleans. It came after a last-ditch offer by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents maritime employers, failed to meet union demands.

Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker Algoma predicts that it will be roughly breakeven on an adjusted EBITDA basis in the second quarter of its fiscal year. The Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario-based company expects adjusted EBIDTA in a range from a gain of $5 million CAD ($3.7 million USD) to a loss of $5 million CAD in fiscal Q2'25.

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has reached a tentative labor agreement with Ford, averting a potential strike at a truck plant in Dearborn, Mich.

SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday:

Flack Global Metals (FGM) Founder and CEO Jeremy Flack will sit down with SMU for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

It’s officially fall. And here’s a funny thing about steel prices in the fall over the last few years – they tend to move in the opposite direction of the leaves. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $676 per short ton (st) in September 2023. That figure increased to $1,035/st in December 2023, a gain of 53% percent. (You can follow along with our pricing tool.)

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has threatened to strike at Stellantis and at Ford’s Dearborn, Mich., truck plant.

U.S. Steel expects third-quarter adjusted earnings of approximately $300 million, according to figures released on Thursday. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker said the result was in line with prior guidance and came despite “challenging pricing dynamics.” The company also said the third quarter likely reflected a “bottoming steel price environment.”

Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.

Cleveland-Cliffs aims to increase prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $750 per short ton (st) effective immediately. The move represents a price hike of $20/st from the Cleveland-based steelmaker's previously published price of $730/st.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) expects lower third-quarter earnings on the heels of “meaningfully lower” prices at its flat-rolled steel operations. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker expects Q3’24 earnings of $1.94 to $1.98 per diluted share, according to figures released on Monday. That’s down from $2.72 per share in Q2’24 and down from $3.47 per share in Q3’23.

Stelco shareholders voted overwhelmingly on Monday to OK the $2.5-billion sale of the Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker to Cleveland-Cliffs. Indeed, 99.97% of those who cast ballots voted to approve the deal, according the Hamilton, Ontario-based steelmaker.

We got a little flack for adjusting our sheet momentum indicators to neutral last week. To be clear, we didn’t adjust them to lower. Part of the reason we moved them to neutral was because there are some unusual cross-currents in the current market. On the news side, you could make a case that there should nowhere to go but up.

Steel Warehouse Chief Commercial Officer Marc Lerman will join Steel Market Update for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Sept. 18, at 11 a.m. ET. You can register here. The live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.

Cleveland-Cliffs plans to place the C-6 blast furnace at its Cleveland Works in Ohio on hot idle in October, according to sources familiar with the matter.

We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission said it has settled charges with Esmark and company founder Esmark James P. Bouchard regarding a tender offer for U.S. Steel last year.

Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.

US mills have filed or soon will file a sprawling trade petition against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 countries. The petition seeks anti-dumping margins against Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the Netherlands, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Taiwan, Australia, and South Africa. It also seeks countervailing duty margins against Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam. That’s according documents dated Sept. 5 and addressed to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and International Trade Commission (ITC) Secretary Lisa Barton.

President Joe Biden could block the $15-billion sale of U.S. Steel to Japan's Nippon Steel by citing national security concerns That’s according to reporting in the Washington Post and the Financial Times that was later picked up by the New York Times as well as in wire services.

U.S. Steel could slash thousands of jobs, shift away from integrated steelmaking, and move its headquarters out of Pittsburgh if its acquisition by Nippon Steel isn’t completed, the company’s top executive said. “We want elected leaders and other key decision makers to recognize the benefits of the deal was well as the unavoidable consequences if the deal fails,” company President and CEO David Burritt said in a statement on Wednesday.

Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)

Vice President Kamala Harris said she opposed U.S. Steel’s acquisition by Nippon Steel in a speech on Labor Day in Pittsburgh.

I want to say a huge ‘thank you’ from all of us at SMU to all of you (more than 1,500!) who attended Steel Summit this year. We appreciate you taking time out of busy schedules to join us – whether that was up on stage, submitting thoughtful questions, or catching up over a drink and bite to eat. Also, a bit shoutout to everyone at SMU and at CRU who made this event possible. It’s no understatement to say that we have a fantastic team.

Flat-rolled steel prices were flat or up moderately this week amid mixed signals from the market.

The big show is just about here. SMU Steel Summit will be getting underway on Monday. Where does the networking begin? I’d say at the airport. So don’t forget your business cards. And it can't hurt to wear a company golf shirt.

Cleveland-Cliffs aims to fetch $730 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil, up $30/st from its last published price. The steelmaker said the move was effectively immediately and “due to ongoing market developments” in a letter to customers on Wednesday, Aug. 21.