It’s been a slow start to the week as far as news goes, something you’d expect ahead of a shortened Independence Day week. That said, it’s not as if transactions have completely ground to a halt. (Prices continue to drift lower.) And while news might be slow, rumors of low-priced deals, price hikes, and trade cases seem to have filled that void.
Veteran investment bankers Vince Pappalardo and Andy Pappas will be the featured guests on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, July 10, at 11 am ET (10 am CT). The live webinar is free to attend for all who register. A recording will be available only to SMU members. You can register here.
It was great to have Gary Stein, CEO of Triple-S Steel, join SMU for a Community Chat earlier this week. (Btw, you can find a record of the webinar here.) We covered a lot of ground. From Andrew Carnegie and the Johnstown Flood to the current steel market and the state of domestic manufacturing broadly speaking. One thing that stuck with me was how unevenly construction spending appears to be on “green” initiatives and other key items funded by infrastructure spending, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS Act.
US sheet prices continue to fall, with SMU’s average hot-rolled (HR) coil price now at $670 per short ton (st). Prices for cold-rolled and coated products are now in the mid/high $900s/st. As I noted in my last Final thoughts, the consensus among our readers is that prices will bottom out in July. And that makes intuitive sense. Lead times in mid/late July should be stretching into the typically busier fall months. The question then is where prices bottom.
Many of our contacts remain bearish about the very short-term direction of steel prices. But a consensus seems to be forming, according to our latest survey results, that a bottom will occur in July. Consensus is also that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won't fall below $600 per short ton (st).
The next SMU Community Chat will be Wednesday, June 26, at 11 am ET (10 am CT) with Gary Stein, CEO of Triple-S Steel Holdings Inc. The webinar is free to attend. A recording will be available to SMU members. You can register here.
Nearly 800 people have registered to attend Steel Summit on Aug. 26-28 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta.
The conventional wisdom is that sheet prices will trend down for the next few weeks (maybe the next two months) before rising again in August – around when lead times stretch into the busier fall months. We see that reflected in our survey results and in market chatter. And there are plenty of data points to choose from if you want to support of that position.
We’ve been writing a lot about sheet prices, and those for hot-rolled (HR) in particular, coming down. Here's one thing that hasn't dropped: The wide spread between HR and cold-rolled (CR) prices. That's what's in a chart below. And I'm using it as a rough proxy for galv and G'lume base prices as well
Where do sheet prices go from here? How is the state of steel demand? And is the dip in prices we've seen just a case of the summer doldrums, or is it something more significant?
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It feels like the summer doldrums arrived a little earlier than usual this year. I know there had been rumors of a price hike. The prospect of a sharply lower June scrap trade probably didn't help the chances of that actually happening.
ArcelorMittal plans to continue to invest and expand its operations in North America, a senior company executive said in an exclusive interview with SMU. “People were talking about our demise in North America or maybe our exit. And I want to emphasize that nothing could be further from the truth,” said Brad Davey, executive vice president and head of corporate development at the company.
US sheet prices remained on a downward course again this week amid chatter in some corners about a potential broader slowdown in demand. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price now stands at $730 per short ton (st) on average, down $20/st from last week and down $115/st from a recent high of $845/st in early April. […]
U.S. Steel Chief Commercial Officer Kenneth Jaycox has decided to leave the company, a company spokeswoman confirmed on Tuesday. Jaycox will transition his responsibilities to Jim Bruno from now through the end of June. Effective July 1, Bruno will be in charge of the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker’s commercial operations, she said. Bruno, who joined U.S. Steel […]
Nucor will increase galvanized and galvannealed coating extras effective July 6, 2024.
There seems to be more question than usual about which way prices will go over the next few weeks. There is talk in some corners that Nucor’s announced $760 per short ton (st) for HR through mid-May, and subsequent increases marked a public attempt to call a price bottom. (Our price announcement calendar here is […]
Sheet prices slipped again this week on a combination of moderate demand, increased imports, and higher import volumes.
Here’s something I didn’t expect to see this week: SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest point since August 2020.
Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking at least $800 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil with the opening of its July order book. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the move was effective immediately in a letter to customers on Thursday, May 23. Recall that Cliffs announced in April that it would publish a monthly HR price. The […]
Veteran StoneX futures broker Spencer Johnson will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 29, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.
Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.
CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 15, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Note that the live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.
Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)
Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)
CRU principal analyst Ryan McKinley will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat on Wednesday, May 15, at 11 am ET. McKinley is instrumental in determining CRU’s benchmark hot-rolled (HR) coil price. He’ll discuss his role, his background in steel, and how the index works.
U.S. Steel posted slightly lower Q1’24 earnings as stronger earnings from its sheet mills were partially offset by a weaker performance from it tubular division. All told, the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker reported Q1’24 earnings of $171 million. That's down 14.1% from $199 million in Q1’23 on sales that fell 6.9% to $4.16 billion in the same comparison.
ArcelorMittal posted a narrower Q1’24 profit compared to Q1’23 but remained optimistic about steel's long-term demand prospects.
Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.
What a difference a month makes. In late March, it seemed like the US hot-rolled (HR) coil market was poised to cycle upward. Large buyers had re-entered the market and placed big orders earlier in the month. Several outages were underway or upcoming. And expectations were that lead times would continue to extend. Cliffs said […]