I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Both current and future scrap sentiment as measured by SMU’s Scrap Market Survey are little changed from last month. The relative stability might reflect June’s sideways settlement. Both measures remain below where they were earlier this year.
Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research for Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat. The webinar will be on Wednesday, June 11, at 11 am ET. It’s free to attend.
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President, and CEO Lourenco Goncalves said he would keep one mill idled and still plans to idle another despite increased protections from Section 232 tariffs doubling to 50%.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday evening signed a proclamation that officially doubled Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. There was one exception: Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from the United Kingdom will remain at 25%, according to a fact sheet published by the White House.
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves offered full-throated support for Section 232 tariffs on imported steel being doubled to 50%. And the top executive of the Cleveland-based steelmaker said the steel industry wanted to see as few exceptions as possible to the tariffs.
Section 232 tariffs of 50% on imported steel will go into effect on Wednesday with few exceptions, according to a top White House official.
Timna Tanners, managing director of equity research for Wolfe Research, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat. Timna has coined Sheet Storm, Galv Galore, and Rebarmageddon. Her forecasts and insights are always though provoking. And she’s not afraid to speak her mind. So it's no surprise that she's one of our most popular guests!
I sort of expected big news last Friday and over the long, Memorial Day weekend. Because that's become more the norm than the exception for steel this year. Sure enough, Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday afternoon that he had given his blessing to a “partnership” between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel. And then over the weekend we had market moving new on tariffs, this time involving the EU.
President Donald Trump on Friday gave his blessing to a $14-billion "partnership" between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel.
Zekelman is known for his straight talk. And his company is one of the largest steel buyers in North America. So he’s got a better eye than most on steel market developments.
Sure, demand isn’t as good the market had hoped it would be earlier this year. But assuming it doesn’t fall of a cliff, buyers will have to restock at some point. And that might give domestic mills enough leverage to raise prices again.
Longtime Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) executive Glenn Pushis will be retiring from the company to become CEO of Project Aero, a company that plans to build a titanium plant in North Carolina.
Tariffs, sanctions, and embargoes, oh my! And they’re hitting aluminum just as hard as steel. So join SMU on Wednesday, May 14, at 11 am ET (10 am CT) for a special Community Chat focusing on the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the aluminum market. We’ll bring you expertise from Aluminum Market Update (AMU), an SMU sister publication that’s scheduled to launch this summer.
Cliffs came tantalizing close to buying U.S. Steel in 2023. There were rumors in 2024 that Cliffs might buy NLMK USA before it ultimately purchased Stelco for $2.5 billion in November of last year. Who would have thought that asset sales would have been the focal point of discussion just six months later?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. gushed red ink in the first quarter, and pledged to stem the bleeding by idling inefficient, “loss-making operations” and increasing focus on its core automotive business.
Steel buyers said Nucor’s price decrease was a public acknowledgement of what most of the market had already known - that sheet prices were moving lower in a more significant way. The question now is whether mills and service centers will manage the decline or whether prices might fall rapidly, they said.
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AMU’s Greg Wittbecker, an aluminum industry veteran, will address not only US tariffs but also evolving trade routes - and how supply chains are (or aren’t) adjusting. He’ll also touch on broader industrial impacts, from auto layoffs to the potential ripple effect of maritime tax policies.
Cleveland-Cliffs plans to indefinitely idle its steel mill in Riverdale, Ill., as well as mills in Conshohocken, Pa., and Steelton, Pa. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said all three facilities would be idled on or around June 30. Approximately 950 jobs will be impacted, the company said.
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Bilstein Cold Rolled Steel LLC CEO Brent Wilson will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, April 30, at 11 am ET. You can register here. Reminder: The live webinar is free to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers. About Bilstein and Wilson Bilstein Cold […]
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were flat or lower as tariff-related uncertainty continued to drag on the market.
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.
The Trump tariff drama continues.
Let’s just say the impact of the latest tariffs on the domestic steel market is uncertain at best.
The US Commerce Department on Friday released preliminary anti-dumping margins in a trade case targeted imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 countries. Certain countries and mills were hammered while others were largely spared. Brazilian steelmaker CSN, for example, received a preliminary rate of 137.76%. Some Turkish mills – including Boreclik and ArcelorMittal Celik Ticaret – received no dumping margin at all.