The news about AD/CVD orders being removed from Brazil on Friday was notable in that it bucked, in a small way, the trend toward regionalism and protectionism that we’ve seen growing since at least 2014. I noted in my initial writeup – as did Lewis Leibowitz in his deeper dive – that the market impact […]
The US International Trade Commission (ITC) narrowly voted to revoke anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Brazilian hot-rolled coil. The move comes after US trade officials decided to let duties on Brazilian cold-rolled coil expire – a change that has raised the ire of some domestic mills. The revocation is notable because it could allow for […]
I made a contrarian case for optimism in my last Final Thoughts. Our latest survey results indicate I was more contrarian than I realized. For starters, there has been speculation in both the physical and futures markets that a strike or lockout at US Steel could catch buyers off guard and send prices spiraling upward. […]
Time for a contrarian, optimistic thought experiment. First the bad news: Sentiment is increasingly bearish on months of falling steel and scrap prices, nearly all respondents to our latest survey report that mills are willing to negotiate lower still, and flattish lead times provide paltry evidence for a rebound. A quick check of the headlines […]
Domestic sheet prices fell sharply this week, marking their first substantial drop following nearly two months of mostly sideways or modestly downward moves. Another month of falling scrap prices appears to have been the catalyst. Another is this: Mills that had talked about discipline on the way up are now fighting for market share, sources […]
We’ve spilled a lot of ink over labor contract talks between US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) union. That issue is no doubt important. But here are two more that are just as important, if not more so. And you should have both on your radar as you start this week. First is the […]
Sheet pricing continues to grind lower and contract negotiations drag on. Let’s first look at why prices have been slipping and think about a few theories as to who or what the culprit might be. Spot Market Dynamics I’ve heard from buyers in the Midwest that discounts for large-volume orders negotiated by an integrated producer […]
Sheet prices continued to tread water this week, with modest declines in hot-rolled coil and galvanized base prices offset in part by minor gains in cold-rolled coil and in Galvalume. Plate prices were also flat, following declines in prior weeks, on the heels of Nucor on Monday announcing unchanged pricing for discrete plate. Our benchmark […]
Nucor Corp. aims to hold plate prices steady with the opening of its November order book. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the flat pricing would be effective Tuesday, Oct. 4. “We reserve the right to review and re-quote any offers that are not confirmed with either a Nucor sales acknowledgement or written acceptance by both […]
Our latest survey results are decidedly mixed. Lead times (like prices) continue to move modestly lower. You can find reasons to support your case in the latest data whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist. Let’s take the case for optimism first. Most survey respondents expect lead times to flatten out soon. Some even expect […]
Our most recent lead time data is flashing a clear warning signal when it comes to plate prices, and so too are plate prices abroad – which in theory offer massive discounts to domestic numbers. Let’s start with plate lead times, which we released today along with lead time figures for sheet products. Plate lead […]
Sheet prices are flattish, with hot-rolled coil averaging approximately $750-800 per ton ($37.50-40 per cwt) for the last month. Should we start talking about mini-cycles within a new, higher normal? Or should we assume that prices will continue to resume their downward trek until we see the typical rebound in Q1 of the New Year? […]
Prices for steel sheet remained mostly flat again this week, up or down modestly depending on the product. Hot-rolled coil was up $5 per ton ($0.25 per cwt), cold-rolled was down $10 per ton, and both galvanized and Galvalume base prices were down $5 per ton. What we’ve seen for the last month is an […]
US Steel has decided to indefinitely idle the No. 3 blast furnace at its Mon Valley Works in western Pennsylvania following a roughly month-long maintenance outage. “We expect planned maintenance on BF 3 to be completed and the furnace to be available for use this week. However, the furnace will remain down until market conditions […]
We’ve seen a wave of mill idlings and outages this fall. But steel buyer reaction to date has been subdued. The yawn now in response to all those tons coming out of the market stands in stark contrast to the almost hysterical reaction to downtime at even the smallest producers in early 2021. Remember the […]
NLMK USA has planned a roughly month-long outage for upgrades to its electric-arc furnace (EAF) sheet mill in Portage, Ind. The work is scheduled for October and November and will be focused on enhancements to the plant’s melt shop and hot strip mill, a company spokesman said. NLMK USA in emails to customers specified the […]
It’s contract negotiation season, and let’s just say that this year is a lot different than the last two years. Mills had pricing power in contract talks in 2020 and in 2021. This year, buyers feel like they have more leverage—and they’re not being shy about pressing mills for lower prices. On the one hand, […]
Has the US steel market reached another downward inflection point? I ask because our survey data has turned a little bearish following an upsurge in sentiment that, in retrospect, might have crested not long after Steel Summit. It wouldn’t be the first time that we saw post-conference euphoria in late August fizzle out in September. Last […]
The long, hot summer of labor unrest that I’d feared early this year didn’t materialize. But that doesn’t mean we’re out the woods yet. The United Steelworkers union and Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. have agreed to a new labor pact. In Canada, meanwhile, the USW has ratified agreements with both Algoma and Stelco. But the union and […]
Sheet and plate prices continued to drift sideways this week as steel mills attempt to hold the line despite weak signals from the scrap market. Mills are more unified in trying to hold the line around $800 per ton ($40 per cwt) on hot-rolled coil following deep discounting ahead of announced price increases last month. […]
It looks like domestic mills are trying to establish a floor at around $800 per ton ($40 per cwt). They’ve arrived there by different means. And whether they’ll be successful remains to be seen. Suffice it to say that some mills that were very, very aggressive in July and August in the spot market aren’t […]
It’s time to forecast 2023, and I’d like to throw out one radical possibility – or at least one worth thinking about. What if there are no black swans? I know, that possibility is so remote that it’s almost laughable. We haven’t had many normal years since 2018. That year gave us the shock of […]
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and the United Steelworkers (USW) union continue to work toward a new labor contract for employees at the company’s iron ore mines. A prior contract between the Cleveland-based steelmaker and workers at its mining and pelletizing operations is set to expire on Oct. 1. That contract is separate from one with its USW-represented […]
Will flat-rolled steel prices bounce around roughly where they’ve been for the past few weeks or inflect downward? Our hot-rolled coil price was down a modest $5 per ton today. And HRC prices have been holding roughly between $770-800 per ton since mid-August. How did things stand this time last year? Steel prices popped above […]
Sheet and plate prices were flat or down this week as some market participants questioned whether tags might be beginning to inflect lower. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices were down $5 per ton week over week. Galvanized (down $55 per ton) and Galvalume (down $40 per ton) fell more significantly. The steeper declines in coated products […]
US Steel has begun a 60-day planned outage on the No. 2 blast furnace at its steel mill in Košice, Slovakia. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker operates three blast furnaces at the mill: No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3. The outage on No. 2. began on Sunday, Sept. 4. The No. 1 and No. 3 furnaces remain […]
US Steel has temporarily idled the No. 5 tin line at its Gary Works in northwest Indiana. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker indicated that the move was necessary because of weaker demand and increased import volumes. “The company’s other tin operations continue to operate in line with customer demand. We expect to bring number 5 tin line back […]
Nucor Corp. aims to keep prices for some plate products flat and to decrease prices on certain cut-to-length items by $50-150 per ton ($2.50-7.50 per cwt). The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker announced the move with the opening of its October order book for plate. “We reserve the right to review and re-quote any offers that are […]
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is again operating the No. 5 blast furnace at its steel mill in Cleveland following an extended outage earlier in the year, a company spokeswoman confirmed to SMU. The move is not unexpected. The Cleveland-based steelmaker said in July that it would have the furnace running at full capacity in August following a […]
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. aims to increase spot prices for carbon steel sheet by at least $75 per ton ($3.75 per cwt). The move is effectively immediately and applies to equally to all new orders of hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated products in North America, the company said in a press release on Wednesday, Aug. 24. It comes […]