Contributor: Michael Cowden

Steel sheet and plate prices moved lower this week as efforts among some mills to hold the line on tags ran up against continued concerns about demand.

The International Longshoreman's Association (ILA) union and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative agreement on wages on Thursday evening. The move ends a strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports that began on Tuesday and that had threatened significant supply-chain disruptions.

Another day, another massive gap between the news and market sentiment. On the news side, we’ve got war in the Middle East. The devastation facing western North Carolina coming into tragic focus. And the outcome of the presidential election remains a coin toss, according to current polling.

The United Steelworkers (USW) union has named Kevon Stewart to be director of District 6, which represents members in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The USW said that appointment was effective on Oct. 1. It also noted that Stewart became the first black district director in the union – not only in Canada but in the United States as well.

Reliance Inc., the largest service center chain in North America, has picked Douglas Stotlar to be the next chairman of its board. The move will be effective Jan. 1, 2025. Mark Kaminski, the current chair, will then step down from that role but will remain on the board.

Join SMU’s next Community Chat webinar with Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries – the largest independent steel pipe and tube manufacturer in North America. The webinar will be on Wednesday, Oct. 16, at 11 a.m. ET. It’s free to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

There are markets where the headlines and the prices are both crazy. This does not appear to be one of them, at least not yet.

Flack Global Metals (FGM) Founder and CEO Jeremy Flack will sit down with SMU for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) launched a strike just after midnight on Tuesday at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. The work stoppage spans from New England to New Orleans. It came after a last-ditch offer by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents maritime employers, failed to meet union demands.

Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker Algoma predicts that it will be roughly breakeven on an adjusted EBITDA basis in the second quarter of its fiscal year. The Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario-based company expects adjusted EBIDTA in a range from a gain of $5 million CAD ($3.7 million USD) to a loss of $5 million CAD in fiscal Q2'25.

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has reached a tentative labor agreement with Ford, averting a potential strike at a truck plant in Dearborn, Mich.

SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday:

Flack Global Metals (FGM) Founder and CEO Jeremy Flack will sit down with SMU for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Oct. 2, at 11 am ET. The live webinar is free for anyone to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU subscribers.

It’s officially fall. And here’s a funny thing about steel prices in the fall over the last few years – they tend to move in the opposite direction of the leaves. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $676 per short ton (st) in September 2023. That figure increased to $1,035/st in December 2023, a gain of 53% percent. (You can follow along with our pricing tool.)

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union has threatened to strike at Stellantis and at Ford’s Dearborn, Mich., truck plant.

U.S. Steel expects third-quarter adjusted earnings of approximately $300 million, according to figures released on Thursday. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker said the result was in line with prior guidance and came despite “challenging pricing dynamics.” The company also said the third quarter likely reflected a “bottoming steel price environment.”

Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.

Cleveland-Cliffs aims to increase prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil to $750 per short ton (st) effective immediately. The move represents a price hike of $20/st from the Cleveland-based steelmaker's previously published price of $730/st.

Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) expects lower third-quarter earnings on the heels of “meaningfully lower” prices at its flat-rolled steel operations. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker expects Q3’24 earnings of $1.94 to $1.98 per diluted share, according to figures released on Monday. That’s down from $2.72 per share in Q2’24 and down from $3.47 per share in Q3’23.

Stelco shareholders voted overwhelmingly on Monday to OK the $2.5-billion sale of the Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker to Cleveland-Cliffs. Indeed, 99.97% of those who cast ballots voted to approve the deal, according the Hamilton, Ontario-based steelmaker.

We got a little flack for adjusting our sheet momentum indicators to neutral last week. To be clear, we didn’t adjust them to lower. Part of the reason we moved them to neutral was because there are some unusual cross-currents in the current market. On the news side, you could make a case that there should nowhere to go but up.

Steel Warehouse Chief Commercial Officer Marc Lerman will join Steel Market Update for a Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Sept. 18, at 11 a.m. ET. You can register here. The live webinar is free for all to attend. A recording will be available only to SMU members.

Cleveland-Cliffs plans to place the C-6 blast furnace at its Cleveland Works in Ohio on hot idle in October, according to sources familiar with the matter.

We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission said it has settled charges with Esmark and company founder Esmark James P. Bouchard regarding a tender offer for U.S. Steel last year.

Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.

US mills have filed or soon will file a sprawling trade petition against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 countries. The petition seeks anti-dumping margins against Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the Netherlands, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Taiwan, Australia, and South Africa. It also seeks countervailing duty margins against Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam. That’s according documents dated Sept. 5 and addressed to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and International Trade Commission (ITC) Secretary Lisa Barton.

President Joe Biden could block the $15-billion sale of U.S. Steel to Japan's Nippon Steel by citing national security concerns That’s according to reporting in the Washington Post and the Financial Times that was later picked up by the New York Times as well as in wire services.

U.S. Steel could slash thousands of jobs, shift away from integrated steelmaking, and move its headquarters out of Pittsburgh if its acquisition by Nippon Steel isn’t completed, the company’s top executive said. “We want elected leaders and other key decision makers to recognize the benefits of the deal was well as the unavoidable consequences if the deal fails,” company President and CEO David Burritt said in a statement on Wednesday.