Is this the week that prices bottomed, or do we still have room to fall? If you think ~$600 per ton ($30 cwt) is the bottom, you might point to some positive big-picture developments: strong energy prices, moves by China to prop up its property sector, or the weakening of the US dollar. You might […]
Steel sheet prices fell across the board again this week, with hot-rolled coil prices dropping to their lowest point since late September 2020 – more than two years ago. But industry opinion about the direction of prices has diverged. That’s a significant shift from prior weeks, when sentiment was almost uniformly bearish. Some market participants […]
I wish I could offer you some hope about steel prices getting better. But at the moment, the thing that strikes me most is that $600 per ton ($30 per cwt) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) sure looks like the “new” $600 per ton. That’s a joke of course. I make it in remembrance of all that […]
ArcelorMittal reported sharply lower revenue and profits in the third quarter on falling prices, customer destocking, and weaker demand – notably in Europe. “The strong market conditions enjoyed for much of the past two years deteriorated in the third quarter,” company CEO Aditya Mittal said. “The short-term outlook for the industry remains uncertain and caution […]
The news of the day, outside of politics (I hear we have an election), is that US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) finally struck a deal. That’s good news if you were hoping to take an unknown factor out of the market. It’s bad news if you were hoping for higher prices on a […]
Sheet prices fell across the board again this week as the slow grind lower that we’ve seen since last spring continued to gain speed. Hot-rolled coil prices fell $30 per ton ($1.50 per cwt) week-over-week. Declines in coated products were more pronounced, with cold rolled down $55 per ton, galvanized down $35 per ton, and […]
The United Steelworkers (USW) union and US Steel said on Tuesday that they had reached a tentative four-year labor agreement. The USW also said that its bargaining committee had unanimously recommended that union members ratify the deal with the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker. The tentative pact covers approximately 11,000 union-represented workers at US Steel. It does not […]
Canadian sheet and plate producer Algoma Steel Inc. posted sharply lower profits for the second quarter of its 2023 fiscal year. The Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario-based steelmaker said the drop resulted from falling steel prices, operational problems, and higher costs. The company had warned in September that its fiscal Q2 earnings would be substantially below […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about Tanners’ outlook for steel prices, raw materials costs, as well […]
Wolfe Research managing director Timna Tanners will be the featured speaker on our SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available free to SMU members. You can register here. We’ll talk about Tanners’ outlook for steel prices, raw materials costs, as well […]
Nucor Corp. hopes to hold plate prices steady with the opening of its December order book. That’s the same approach the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker took last month with the opening of its November book. Nucor said unchanged plate prices were effective Thursday, Nov. 3, in a letter to customers dated the same day. “We reserve […]
Steel prices really took a dive this week. I’ve noted before that some of that could be explained by seasonal factors. And it doesn’t help that inflation and rising interest rates are hurting consumer demand. But it’s also important to keep an eye on what was said during recent earnings calls. Because I think some […]
It’s official. Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) will build its $1.9 billion flat-rolled aluminum mill in Columbus, Miss., where the company already operates an electric-arc furnace (EAF) steel sheet mill. The Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker said it would also construct a “biocarbon” facility in Columbus to reduce reliance on anthracite coal in its EAFs and to […]
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) appears poised to announce that its new aluminum flat-rolled mill will be located in Mississippi, according to state records and recent comments by the state’s governor. Governor Tate Reeves said he would convene a special session of the state legislature on Wednesday, Nov. 2, to finalize “the largest economic development deal […]
Sheet prices are down yet again, with our hot-rolled coil price now at its lowest point since late October 2020. The question two years ago was how far prices might rise as demand snapped back from the pandemic faster than supply could be brought online to meet it. The question now is when and where […]
Sheet and plate prices fell across the board once again this week as market participants continue to question when and where the market might bottom. Some not long ago predicted that hot-rolled coil prices wouldn’t fall below $800 per ton ($40 per cwt). Our average price is now well below $700 per ton, with some […]
SMU has released its latest full survey results, and I want to highlight some big changes that we’ve seen in the data compared to just two weeks ago. Chief among them is what appears to be a big shift in service center pricing and buying patterns. We had seen most service centers trying to hold […]
I want to give a shoutout to the North American Steel Alliance (NASA) for giving me the opportunity to provide a keynote address at their Forecast Conference in Chicago earlier this week. And I want to take a minute to dive deeper into SMU’s lead time figures, one of the indicators I highlighted at the event as […]
Domestic sheet prices slipped again this week across all sheet and plate products. It’s the continuation of a mostly downward trend on the sheet side that we’ve seen since mid/late April. Hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated products were all down $20–25 per ton ($1–1.25 per cwt). Plate prices slipped a more modest $10 per ton. SMU’s […]
The news about AD/CVD orders being removed from Brazil on Friday was notable in that it bucked, in a small way, the trend toward regionalism and protectionism that we’ve seen growing since at least 2014. I noted in my initial writeup – as did Lewis Leibowitz in his deeper dive – that the market impact […]
The US International Trade Commission (ITC) narrowly voted to revoke anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Brazilian hot-rolled coil. The move comes after US trade officials decided to let duties on Brazilian cold-rolled coil expire – a change that has raised the ire of some domestic mills. The revocation is notable because it could allow for […]
I made a contrarian case for optimism in my last Final Thoughts. Our latest survey results indicate I was more contrarian than I realized. For starters, there has been speculation in both the physical and futures markets that a strike or lockout at US Steel could catch buyers off guard and send prices spiraling upward. […]
Time for a contrarian, optimistic thought experiment. First the bad news: Sentiment is increasingly bearish on months of falling steel and scrap prices, nearly all respondents to our latest survey report that mills are willing to negotiate lower still, and flattish lead times provide paltry evidence for a rebound. A quick check of the headlines […]
Domestic sheet prices fell sharply this week, marking their first substantial drop following nearly two months of mostly sideways or modestly downward moves. Another month of falling scrap prices appears to have been the catalyst. Another is this: Mills that had talked about discipline on the way up are now fighting for market share, sources […]
We’ve spilled a lot of ink over labor contract talks between US Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) union. That issue is no doubt important. But here are two more that are just as important, if not more so. And you should have both on your radar as you start this week. First is the […]
Sheet pricing continues to grind lower and contract negotiations drag on. Let’s first look at why prices have been slipping and think about a few theories as to who or what the culprit might be. Spot Market Dynamics I’ve heard from buyers in the Midwest that discounts for large-volume orders negotiated by an integrated producer […]
Sheet prices continued to tread water this week, with modest declines in hot-rolled coil and galvanized base prices offset in part by minor gains in cold-rolled coil and in Galvalume. Plate prices were also flat, following declines in prior weeks, on the heels of Nucor on Monday announcing unchanged pricing for discrete plate. Our benchmark […]
Nucor Corp. aims to hold plate prices steady with the opening of its November order book. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the flat pricing would be effective Tuesday, Oct. 4. “We reserve the right to review and re-quote any offers that are not confirmed with either a Nucor sales acknowledgement or written acceptance by both […]
Our latest survey results are decidedly mixed. Lead times (like prices) continue to move modestly lower. You can find reasons to support your case in the latest data whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist. Let’s take the case for optimism first. Most survey respondents expect lead times to flatten out soon. Some even expect […]
Our most recent lead time data is flashing a clear warning signal when it comes to plate prices, and so too are plate prices abroad – which in theory offer massive discounts to domestic numbers. Let’s start with plate lead times, which we released today along with lead time figures for sheet products. Plate lead […]