Contributor: Matthew Abrams

Recovery continues but geopolitical risks remain for 2025

A roundup of CRU's weekly aluminum news.

Please enjoy this roundup of recent news from the aluminum industry from our colleagues at CRU. EU to hit Chinese electric cars with tariffs up to 48% The European Commission notified carmakers on June 12 that it would provisionally apply additional duties of 17-38% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. The duties will be […]

President Biden announced an increase in tariffs this week on Chinese EVs, semiconductors, batteries, solar cells, steel, and aluminum.

US announces new import duties on aluminum extrusions The US Department of Commerce has placed preliminary antidumping (AD) duties of 2-600% on imports of aluminum extrusions from 14 countries. The rates are: “[The findings] show just how widespread dumping practices are globally and highlight the importance of strongly enforcing the antidumping laws to shield US […]

Here’s a roundup of the latest news in the global aluminum market from our colleagues at CRU. Biden calls for tripling of Chinese steel and aluminum tariffs President Joe Biden is calling on the US Trade Representative (USTR) to consider increasing the existing section 301 import duty on Chinese steel and aluminum three-fold. The current […]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data was released on Friday, March 29, despite the stock market being closed for Good Friday. The year-over-year (y/y) PCE price index rose 2.5% in February, in line with market expectations but up from the 2.4% growth seen in January. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% y/y in February, also in line with expectations and slightly down from 2.9% in January.

The LME 3-month aluminum price resumed moving lower on the morning of March 22 and was last seen trading at $2,290 per metric ton. The price was unable to break through an important resistance level at $2,300/mt on March 21. EGA to acquire European recycler Emirates Global Aluminium of the UAE has signed a binding […]

The LME three-month price continued to strengthen through Friday, March 8, defending its position close to its five-week high and rising further to $2,262 per metric ton (mt), up 0.3%, on the day. Gains were also noted over the last week in other industrial metals, including copper, zinc, and lead. The price gains appeared to be due to weakness in the US dollar, which fell sharply against a basket of currencies after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that rate cuts were still expected this year.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai has voiced the United States’ unease at a marked increase in steel and aluminum imports from Mexico, and what she termed a lack of transparency about Mexican imports of the metals from third countries.

The US Midwest premium continued to trade between 18.8–19.4 cents per pound (¢/lb) this week. There remains a host of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks in the current environment, but none have affected the short-term outlook for the premium. Current trading for April reached 20 ¢/lb which is on par with CRU’s current forecast for Q2’24. Dates closer to the end of the year have fallen to 21.2 ¢/lb.

This week Magnitude 7 Metals issued a statement to announce the curtailment of its New Madrid smelter in Marston, Mo. The plant, one of only five remaining primary smelters in the US, employs approximately 450 union workers. With over 275,000 metric tons (mt) of capacity per year, New Madrid is the second-largest plant by capacity […]

The LME three-month price was moving down again on the morning of Jan. 12 and was last seen trading at $2,215 per metric ton (mt). We expect a test of the $2,200/mt support to be imminent. A break would be bearish as it could mean a complete reversal of the gains seen in December, although we still estimate that as being unlikely.

European Aluminium, an association representing the entire European aluminum value chain, announced in a press release that it supports the European Commission's proposed 12th package of sanctions against Russia.

The LME aluminum three-month price was unchanged on the morning of Nov. 3 and was seen trading at $2,235 per tonne.

The LME aluminum 3-month price was stable on the morning of Oct. 13, trading at $2,201 per tonne at that time.

The LME aluminum three-month price was broadly unchanged on Friday morning, Oct. 6, and was last seen trading at $2,243 per ton. Due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day celebrations, the SHFE is closed for holidays from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6. According to a report from Bloomberg, leaders from the EU and the […]

The LME aluminum three-month price was broadly stable again on the morning of Sept. 8 and was last seen trading at $2,180 per tonne.

The LME aluminum 3-month price is unchanged on the morning of August 18 and was last seen trading at $2,144 /t. A rally to an intraday high of $2,186 /t on the 17th proved again to be short-lived as almost all gains were erased by the close. This shows how strong the downward trend that […]

US Midwest premium has continued to trend lower. Slack end-use demand is the main driver as the CME backwardation holds for dates further out in 2023. Lower freight and weak LME prices lower the replacement costs of aluminum and thus lower the floor for the premium.

With the latest announcement between India and the US easing Section 232 duties, it is clear the duties, initiated in 2018, are under review. Now that five years have passed, a good amount of data has been gathered to analyze the effects of the policy. Judging from each scheduled review of the economic effects of […]

With the latest announcement between India and the US easing Section 232 duties, it is clear the duties, initiated in 2018, are under review. Now that five years have passed, a good amount of data has been gathered to analyze the effects of the policy. Judging from each scheduled review of the economic effects of the policy resulting in its continuation, it is clear that it has had a positive impact on parts of the industry. However, there are also a handful of knock-on effects that have become apparent.

With demand trending lower throughout out the first half of 2023, the aluminum industry is searching for something to be optimistic about. Recent economic news is leaning positive, with inflation slowing across multiple measures including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and manufacturing final goods’ pricing. Personal consumption expenditure has slowed from its peak but sustained […]

The United States and Indian governments have agreed to terminate six disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Benefits from the settlement include opening the US to more shipments of steel and aluminum made in India, according to New Delhi. “As a part of the agreement, the US has agreed to grant market access to […]

The US Federal Reserve has taken some pressure out of the market by announcing a pause in interest rate hikes, leaving rates at 5% to 5.25% after more than a year of consecutive rate increases. The decision on Wednesday came a day after official figures showed US inflation was 4% – the lowest pace of […]

The LME aluminum three-month price continued to make steady gains on the morning of June 2 and was seen trading at $2,308/t. The move marks the successful test of the key $2,200/t support earlier last week. SHFE aluminum prices also traded higher on that day. The cash price settled at RMB18,585/t and last traded at RMB18,665/t, […]

 Premiums for aluminum in the US took fell again last week following a period of stability after the Federal Reserve stepped in the wake of the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Economic struggles have continued to depress shipment volumes into Q2, and many major macro data points are still muddied. Last week another bank […]

Fresh off another rate hike from the Fed, US macro data came in mixed during the month of March. The final update for GDP in Q4 2022 showed 2.6% growth, which was down slightly month over month and below expectations. Consumer spending has also been revised down consistently over each update on the Q4 figures. […]

The macro environment in the US has proven to be extremely volatile and continues to change on a month-by-month and sometimes even week-by-week basis. Last year ended with worries about an incoming recession as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to slow the economy. As 2023 opened and year-end economic data trickled in, the figures were […]

Despite the economic concerns that lowered consumer sentiment towards the end of 2022, aluminum products demand has held up throughout the first three months of the year. A slowdown from the frenetic post-pandemic pace is apparent. Overall, though, both rollers and extruders comment that conditions are better than expected. The new order index as released […]