By CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen and CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Economic Outlook, Nov. 30 Global Economic Outlook November 2022 In this Global Economic Outlook, we look ahead to 2022 and outline our top 10 calls for the global economy. These include predictions on world growth, inflation, exchange […]
By CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen and CRU Research Manager Paul Butterworth There are no low-cost options when it comes to tackling climate change. Renewable energy is not cheaper than fossil-based power once the price of investment and storage are considered. Low-carbon energy will cost more. The only way to incentivize […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The spread of the Delta variant, plus some disappointing data from the U.S., have led us to slightly revise down our forecast for 2021 GDP growth from 6.1% to 5.9%. Growth in industrial production […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen In this mid-year update to our global economic outlook, we look back at our expectations at the beginning of the year, and those of our surveyed clients, and compare them with actual outcomes over the past six months. Overall, the global economy is in vastly better shape […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Head of Fertilizers Chris Lawson, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Commodity prices have continued an upwards tear in 2021. Steel and its raw materials have seen the sharpest gains, but less well-known commodities such as fertilizers are also attracting attention. With such steep price rises, calls for a […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook This month has seen strong signs that the speed of the recovery in the global industrial sector is feeding through to costs throughout the supply chain. Although this does present a risk to our forecast, our baseline case remains […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Our forecast for global growth in 2021 remains unchanged, with downward revisions to Europe, India and China being offset by upward revisions to other countries, principally the U.S. Although risks remain, we remain confident that the world will see […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s March Global Economic Outlook In March, we received good news on the outlook for the world’s two largest economies: the U.S. stimulus package was larger than expected, and economic growth in China is stronger. We expect a temporary rise in inflation in […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook This month has brought good and bad news. On the one hand, vaccines are being rolled out, and further U.S. fiscal stimulus looks increasingly likely. On the other hand, the growing severity of the second wave of COVID-19 means […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Economist Yingrui Wang On March 5, the Chinese government announced its macroeconomic targets for 2021 and beyond. It reaffirmed our broad view that China is keen to withdraw policy support gradually and deliver a steady economic slowdown over the next five years. What we learned is that […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor After years in which inflation has been low in major economies, financial markets are becoming increasingly concerned about high future inflation. In this Special Feature, we examine a number of factors which could be inflationary over the […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Research Director Lavan Mahadeva, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Editor’s note: This article was originally published by the Financial Times on Feb. 19. The sharp rise in commodity prices from the depths of the COVID-19 lockdown is fueling talk of a commodities “supercycle” with the greening of the global economy replacing […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share the following Premium content with Executive members. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook As the curtain falls on 2020, this overview looks back on the year […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Steel Monitor In this Global Economic Outlook, we look ahead to 2021 and outline our top ten calls for the global economy. These include predictions on Covid-19 vaccines, world growth, the auto and construction sectors, the U.S. dollar, monetary and fiscal policy, […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook In this Global Economic Outlook, we reflect on some of the most important risks to the forecast we discussed with clients during LME week. Three issues were foremost: risks to the recovery from the second Covid-19 wave, policy stimulus […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Economist Anissa Chabib The U.S. economy has seen a faster than expected resumption of economic activity since the “stay at home” orders ended in May. Most notable has been the improvement in the labor market. The number of people who lost their jobs in March and April was […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Since lockdown restrictions eased in May the global recovery has been strong, but with marked differences across countries and sectors. The strong recovery in China is partly due to its better virus trajectory over the summer, which has allowed confidence to return. This has […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Our global economic forecast has stabilized as our understanding of the economic impact brought on by the virus has improved. In August, there have been some offsetting changes across regions with the USA and China data a little stronger than expected and the EU […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The economy is in the midst of a recession triggered by a health crisis. That makes this recession unusual and different. Here we examine how this recession compares to previous recessions. From that we infer key features of the […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from the Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook There is widespread agreement that the dollar is overvalued by around 10 percent. CRU expects the trade weighted dollar (TW$) to remain overvalued and broadly stable for the rest of 2020, as pandemic uncertainty continues to support the dollar as a “safe-haven” […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service Many are still discussing what type of recession will ensue following the Covid-19 pandemic. Will it be U-, V- or L-shaped? Different people may refer to the same shape to mean different outcomes. To bring clarity to this issue, this insight sets out […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Lockdowns continued into April. They resulted in a fall in activity, particularly in the hospitality, entertainment and travel sectors. Using estimates of the loss of output by sector, we find that one month of lockdown lowers the […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Overview March 2020 The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the “end game” has fueled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU is now forecasting a global recession in 2020; […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Two pieces of news have led us to lower our global forecasts for 2020. First, disruptions caused by the Covid-19 epidemic are expected to lead to a sharp downturn in near-term global growth, followed by a sharp recovery later in the year. […]
Writing with CRU’s Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen are Principal Consultant for Aluminum Wan Ling, Senior Analyst Richard Lu, Analyst Ruilin Wang and China office CEO John Johnson. Last week, CRU’s China offices in Shanghai and Beijing returned to work following the Chinese New Year holiday, which was extended due to the outbreak of novel coronavirus (Covid-19). This virus has had a heavy […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen Given the importance of China to our industry, this Insight sets out the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus on commodity markets. Using the SARS episode as a benchmark, the impact on Chinese GDP and industrial production could be as large as 1 percent—but that estimate comes with a […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from the CRU Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Global Economic Outlook: 2019 has been an eventful year. Many decisions were taken, including tariffs and monetary policy easing. Other decisions were put-off, such as Brexit and auto tariffs. Looking back to our expectations at the start of 2019, four things […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service This piece sets out insights gained from a visit to CRUs Beijing office. The trade war has been an unexpected headwind to China’s economy and there is a real concern about the risks of a sharper than desirable growth slowdown. In response the government […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen We expect world GDP to grow by 2.5 percent this year and next; in other words, we expect global growth to be broadly stable at current rates. The story for world industrial production, instead, is one of a mild recovery from 1.4 percent in 2019 to 2.2 percent in […]
By CRU Economic Analyst Ippolito Tarabini and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen World industrial production growth halved in 2019H1 to 1.5 percent from 3 percent in 2018, suffering because of a slowdown in China, the widespread downturn in the automotive sector, and the unpredictable trade negotiations between the U.S. and the rest of the world, particularly […]