Now that the dust has settled from the US election, as have the immediate reactions in the equity, bond, and commodity markets, this is a prime opportunity to look at how a second Trump presidency might affect the US steel market.
CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares insight into the hot-rolled coil futures market.
CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares with SMU his analysis of the hot-rolled coil futures market.
The recently announced acquisition of Stelco by Cleveland-Cliffs (Cliffs), priced at nearly three times book value, provides a great price for Stelco shareholders. And various synergies will likely leave Cliffs with tremendous runway for further growth in this deal. Cliffs expects to close this deal in 2024 Q4 upon government approval. This approval is expected but not a given.
Nucor’s Consumer Spot Price (CSP), a legitimate mill offer price, is a potential disruptor to North American steel sheet commercial and procurement strategies. We will dive into the details of what we think the CSP is and why we believe it is a potential disruption to how the North American sheet market operates.
Annual contract negotiations between buyers and mills in the US flat-rolled steel market are picking up pace as both look to lock in volume for the coming year. As these contracts are finalized, we expect that changes in the market will impact how 2024 contracts are ultimately structured. The primary change in the market is […]
July 2023- Facetime: Steel market analyst JOSH SPOORES talks with Modern Metals about CRU steel prices Q: Josh, you have been involved in the steel industry for quite a while. Can you give MM’s readers a quick summary of your experience? A: I joined the industry in 2005 and worked at a mill, service center, my own research company and then have been at CRU since 2012. I started learning the industry at Majestic Steel USA. They bought and sold in the spot market and carry a huge amount of inventory in anticipation of sales. Working there taught me an incredible amount about procurement strategy as well as how to develop a unique brand of market analysis. It’s this real-world analysis that matters—immersing yourself in data points and information, but, at the same time, making sure to eliminate any excess noise.
At the start of each year, CRU continues to feature top expectations and outliers for the year ahead. This annual list of expectations is a thought piece, meant to stimulate internal discussions, scenario analysis, and strategic planning around potential risks to the markets we cover. This 2023 edition covers six expectations and three potential outliers. […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Feb. 9 The global sheet market often exhibits price trends that vary by region. Occasionally, prices do move in the same direction, though on these occasions, prices typically reflect a unified trend of global costs or inventory change. In the current sheet […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Feb. 9 Sheet prices in the North American sheet market have continued to collapse due to a temporary supply surplus. Since prices peaked in late September/early October, the price decline for HR and HDG coil has been at a larger amount in USD […]
By Principal Analyst Josh Spoores from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Jan. 22 Trends in the North American sheet market have picked up where 2021 left off, particularly a continued decline in sheet prices. Various supply pressures have overwhelmed demand and led to lower sheet prices in all North American markets. In the U.S. Midwest […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Monitor, Dec. 15 Seasonal pressures are starting to temporarily slow demand for some steel products. For sheet, this weakness is adding to a monumental shift in supply fundamentals. For other products, an unseasonably warm start to December has allowed construction demand to remain stronger than normal. […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, Nov. 10 Global sheet prices have continued to fall, though declines have not been consistent across all regions. Overall, CRU’s Global Flat Products Steel Price Indicator (CRUspi flats) fell for the second consecutive month, declining by 2.9% and is now at its lowest […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores Trade representatives from the USA and Europe came to an agreement at the end of October in regard to the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Department of Commerce further announced on Oct. 31 that consultations regarding the trade of steel remain ongoing between the USA and […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Over the past five weeks since we last reviewed the CME Group’s HR coil futures market, there has been a renewed surge in volatility. Spot prices of physical HR coil have clearly plateaued, yet more likely started a new downtrend, and futures prices […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor After 14 consecutive months of rising global sheet prices, CRU’s Global Flat Products Steel Price Indicator (CRUspi flats) has fallen m/m. This indicator fell 3.5% as sheet prices continue to fall across most regional markets. The U.S. Midwest market remains the last holdout […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor North American sheet prices are lower m/m as prices in the U.S. have finally started to fall, at least for HR coil. Over the past several weeks, the amount and overall volume of spot transactions between mills and buyers have slowed, yet we […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Market fundamentals in the North American sheet market continue to evolve and clearly suggest that supply tightness is easing. From a broad point of view, these fundamentals include rising supply, service center inventories that are balanced with outbound shipments, and demand growth that […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Regional sheet markets have continued to exhibit divergent trends for not only prices, but also production and demand. The lone continent where sheet prices have yet to fall from a peak is North America. All other markets now have prices below their recent […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest market have continued to rise, though the rate of increase has slowed since the end of May. The price of HR coil has increased $21 /s.ton w/w and is now $126 /s.ton higher than our assessment on […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor The current global sheet market cycle is one which continues to reflect a strong demand rebound from the lows associated with various lockdowns in 2020 H1. It seems that in one market after the other, sheet production has failed to catch up with […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, and Gregor Spilker, CME Group By early 2021 Q2, HRC prices in the U.S. Midwest market had tripled from the trough reached in August 2020. As prices rose from $437 /s.ton to a record high of over $1,300 /s.ton, CME Group’s U.S. Midwest HRC contract settled on CRU surged […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Higher steel sheet prices continue to be assessed across most global markets. Reflecting this, CRU’s Global Flat Products Steel Price Indicator (CRUspi flats), has risen for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 238.2, its highest reading since September 2008. This indicator is now 56% […]
By Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor One year ago, the title of our May Steel Sheet Products Monitor was “Global sheet markets move past bottom of demand cycle.” Today, global sheet consumption continues to rise, reaching levels where current global production cannot keep pace. In addition to the continued demand rebound from […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Global steel prices, as measured by the CRUspi index, have increased for the 10th consecutive month, gaining 9.4% m/m and 116% y/y. This index now stands at 301.1, a new record high. This index continues to be supported by higher finished steel prices across all regions. […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest market have not only continued to rise, but the m/m gains have come so fast that our second Wednesday price assessment completely skipped the $900 /s.ton level. Our Jan. 12 price assessment for HR coil is $1,044 […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor U.S. Steel announced the full buyout of Big River Steel this week, while Cleveland-Cliffs closed on its acquisition of ArcelorMittal’s U.S. assets. In any other week, these headlines would drive the news flow for steel buyers and sellers. However, news this week remains […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores and Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Strong underlying demand continues to provide substantial support to finished steel prices in the USA. Sheet prices have risen at their quickest pace since CRU started tracking them and, while there was little change m/m for long products, mills have […]
By Principal Consultant Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor North American sheet prices have continued to surge after bottoming this past August. For HR coil, prices have been assessed at $712 /s.ton. Since Aug. 12, these prices have gained $237 /s.ton, or 63%. This is the fastest percent gain over three months in […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores and Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Strong underlying demand continues to provide substantial support to finished steel prices in the USA. Sheet prices have risen at their quickest pace since CRU started tracking them and, while there was little change m/m for long products, mills have […]