By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis On June 28, the Russian government announced the imposition of a 15% tax on aluminum exports. The tax is effective for the period August through December 2021 and covers most primary aluminum exports. This appears to be a case of the Russian government making an opportunistic “raid” on one […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Ten years ago the aluminum can, and the aluminum sheet mills that supplied them, looked to be on borrowed time. Aluminum beverage can shipments, as reported by the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI) had been flatlining for years. Can manufacturers were consolidating, with Ball and Ardagh acquiring Rexam assets in […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis We have just refreshed our expectations on aluminum for 2021 in our latest of the CRU Aluminum Market Outlook. Here are some of the key takeaways: Demand Is Strong The World ex China is into its recovery from the the Covid-19 pandemic. We expect to see sharp year-on-year growth […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The EU continues to move ahead on its plan to decrease greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here’s some historical context on emissions management in the EU. The EU has been on a long journey to its current condition. Phase 1 of its decarbonization plan took place between 2005-2017. The Emissions Trading […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Like the steel industry, the aluminum industry has long recognized the economic value of scrap. Every time virgin aluminum prices have risen, buyers have accelerated substitution of scrap for virgin metal. Now, economic sensibility has been married to the new focus on sustainability. Consumer-facing market segments are leading the […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker Ford announced in February that it would be all electric in Europe by 2030. This comes on the heels of General Motors stopping production of internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2035. These decisions underscore the shifting landscape in key aluminum applications and use within automotive. Die-castings have always been […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker In January 2016, Bitcoin was trading at 450 to the U.S. dollar. Recent prices hit over 58,000 and are now trading around 48,000. There are investment advisors suggesting cryptocurrencies should be part of investors’ portfolios. It appears that Bitcoin and its imitators are going mainstream. While this fascination with […]
By CRU Advisor Greg Wittbecker Buyers of aluminum have been spoiled since the global financial crisis by persistent surpluses and relatively benign price action. That is changing. Inventories are Depleting and What Remains is in Strong Hands Global inventories expressed in days of global consumption stood at 78 days ending 2020. This compares to 114 […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker Environmental, social and governance (ESG) is now core to most major corporations. Companies that don’t put strong emphasis on this do so at their peril. Many companies are using ESG as an opportunity to create competitive advantage. These advantages are coming through several approaches. Sustainable Production Sustainability can be […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The grounding of the MV Ever Given in the Suez Canal has multiple repercussions on the global maritime supply chain, but it is especially acute for the aluminum market. Gulf Region Production is Important The Gulf Region in terms of aluminum production comprises Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis China has staked out ambitious goals to decarbonize its overall economy. President Xi has said that CO2 emissions will peak before 2030 and that China will be carbon neutral by 2060. The Macro-economic Perspective China generates 28% of global CO2 emissions. Its energy-related emissions are 15% of the world’s […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis U.S. Midwest primary aluminum expressed over LME cash is 26-27 cents per pound, touted at “record levels.” In October 2014, Midwest traded premiums reached 23 cents per pound, so on paper we have set a new high….or have we? 2014: the Era of the LME Warehouse Queues We don’t […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Welcome to inflation after a 40-year absence. I spoke at the 2021 Aluminum Extruders Council Annual Meeting in March and said to the audience that if you were under the age of 55, you probably have never seen real inflation. The last time the U.S. experienced high, persistent inflation […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Whenever prices for key commodities such as aluminum, steel, wood or rubber start to really rise, there is a natural tendency for Procurement Officers to say, “let’s look at alternatives.” That’s their job, and if they weren’t looking at options to compensate for cost increases, they would be fired. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The primary aluminum industry has operated with the same technology since the large-scale production process was developed in 1886. It is a carbon-based electrolytic process. This process generates a lot of CO2. Global aluminum producers have been focused on reducing GHG for some time, but efforts have accelerated in […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Primary aluminum prices are on a roll in China and the World ex China. The Shanghai Metal Exchange (SHFE) spot price is 18,425 RMB or $2,825 per metric ton. Even adjusting out the 13% Value-Added-Tax (VAT) embedded in that price, it’s still a 10-year high of $2,500 per metric […]