Contributor: Greg Wittbecker

A week after "Liberation Day," the global economy got a 90-day “stay of execution.” The Trump administration hit the pause button on many of its broad tariff measures, with the exception of China.

The United Arab Emirates’ Emirates (UAE) Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) announced plans to spend $1.4 trillion dollars in the US over the next 10 years, including a greenfield primary aluminum smelter. Is this real or another soundbite?

The aluminum market is facing a wave of uncertainty following the latest Section 232 tariffs, leaving many in the industry asking the same key questions – from why the Midwest Premium isn’t reacting as expected to how these tariffs will impact Canada, value-added products, and scrap flows – there’s plenty to unpack. We’ve put together […]

Let's take a look at different tariff scenarios.

Imposing country-of-origin duties plus the upwardly revised Section 232 duties would create an untenable value for Midwest P1020. Modeling the extreme outcome of 25% country-of-origin tariffs plus 25% Section 232 tariffs could put Midwest physical premiums as high as $0.65 per pound. No, that is not a typo: $0.65 per pound! Primary aluminum supply chains would rotate from importing Canadian aluminum to importing it from India, the Middle East, or other very distant origins. That is worrisome for manufacturers.

The demise of the VAT rebate system in China might be the most tangible sign that Beijing realizes that its unbridled access to global markets is over. There was no point in continuing a system of financial incentives to the export sector when the tariff headwinds were getting stronger.

New duties could give companies like Alcoa and Century Aluminum revenue gains that could boost production

The problem is that the situation in Washington is so fluid that no one really knows what to expect

A look at US curbside operators concerns about new deposit legislation for used beverage cans.

Hitting Canada with a 25% tariff could allow imported goods from other origins at proposed 10%-20% tariffs.

The Stargate Project is making big claims. Are they realistic?

Many people have shaken off the post-holiday blues. But for primary aluminum operators, “power blues” are enduring.

We are quickly approaching Inauguration Day. The market still has no definitive clue as to how the Trump administration will execute on its threat to apply universal tariffs to all imports. Compounding this are the threats to apply 25% duties against our USMCA partners - Canada and Mexico.

The size of the capital structure and the composition of the owners are telling statements about the importance that Beijing has assigned to this venture.

In 2024, volatility with a capital “V” has been the rule. That will remain high heading into 2025.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel has ruled against the US on its implementation of Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Norway brought this case. There are pending cases on Section 232 from China, India, Russia, Switzerland, and Turkey—all challenging the legitimacy of US arguments the tariffs were essential to protecting US […]

2022: A Year of Unprecedented Change and Volatility We entered 2022 expecting plenty of change in aluminum and the market delivered more than its fair share of twists and turns. There were 3 macroeconomic effects that rippled through the entire global economy: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices soaring, as they “weaponized” their […]

New Commitments in Middle East Around Carbon Capture and Alcoa Gives Updates on Elysis Technology We were struck this week by reports from Saudi Arabia that the Ma’aden smelter intends to pursue a carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) approach to reducing its carbon footprint. During the current COP27 event in Egypt, Ma’aden’ Senior Vice […]

The London Metal Exchange (LME) consultation with industry has come and gone with no action. The Exchange on Friday, Nov. 11, published its response to submissions from the industry on the issue of Russian metals. As a refresher, the LME asked for opinion on three options: • Do nothing • Impose limits on the warranting of […]

The Hard Work Starts Now, Executing on the Announced New Aluminum Capacity After the flurry of announcements in May and July of this year, the three new greenfield aluminum rolling mills are in various stages of execution. Novelis Breaks Ground Official ground breaking took place on Novelis’ Bay Minette, Ala., mill on Oct. 7. The […]

The Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum Just over a year ago, on Oct. 3, 2021, the EU and the US signed an agreement to negotiate on carbon intensity and global overcapacity in both steel and aluminum. This lofty goal seemed to have been trumped by the agreement that the US suspended Section 232 […]

Ingram Marine Group, the largest US barge operator, on Oct. 6 declared force majeure in a letter to customers. The company said low water levels had made it impossible to make timely deliveries. Vessels have run aground near Memphis, Tenn., and there is a logjam of more than 122 vessels/barges near Stack Island, Miss., impeding […]

The London Metal Exchange (LME) has launched a discussion paper on whether to delist Russian primary aluminum from its contract. A discussion paper is like what we do in the US when we ask for public comment on an issue. This decision to ask for market commentary is a 180-degree change of direction from what […]

Aluminum May Be Approaching the End of Its Long Destocking Cycle Last week, I described our premise about demand versus real consumption. We talked about the market’s natural tendency to destock when prices take a beating as they have during most of 2022. The latest Index of Orders from the Aluminum Association offers some early […]

Long liquidation as opposed to short selling? I spoke this week at two diverse industry groups: the Aluminum Extruders Council (AEC) and the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI). While differing in their sector concentration, the audiences had the same questions: • What’s going on with the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price? • Why […]

Natural gas inspired staggering energy prices crush primary aluminum economics The suspension of gas deliveries through the Nord Stream pipeline has further aggravated an already grim energy situation for European aluminum producers. Prices for day-ahead power in Western Europe are stunning in their magnitude: 404 euros/megawatt hour were published on Friday for Germany, France, the […]

End use market demand is mixed as mid-year shipment data is reported The recession, inflation, and interest rates remain hot topics for aluminum producers and consumers. As new economic data is announced, both bright spots and points of concern emerge. First, this month’s report on inflation showed a drop month-on-month (MoM) and may signal that […]

Underlying price function stops sliding and may have found basis for strengthening The London Metal Exchange (LME) may have found a floor to stop the slide it has experienced since April. Topping out near $3,400 metric tons earlier this year, the price of aluminum drifted lower steadily in the second quarter and into the third […]

Ball Corp. earnings alert market to slowing can demand Ball issued its second quarter earnings results on Aug. 4, and they have unsettled the market. The company reported a loss of $174 million while taking a non-cash asset impairment for its Russian operations, which it had previously stated it would suspend future investment in and […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group US International Trade Commission hearings provide little direction Last week in DC, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) held a series of public meetings and hearings to take comments on current Section 232 tariffs. Representatives from throughout the value chain were in attendance. The Aluminum Association participated in a […]