Contributor: Greg Wittbecker

The size of the capital structure and the composition of the owners are telling statements about the importance that Beijing has assigned to this venture.

In 2024, volatility with a capital “V” has been the rule. That will remain high heading into 2025.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel has ruled against the US on its implementation of Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Norway brought this case. There are pending cases on Section 232 from China, India, Russia, Switzerland, and Turkey—all challenging the legitimacy of US arguments the tariffs were essential to protecting US […]

2022: A Year of Unprecedented Change and Volatility We entered 2022 expecting plenty of change in aluminum and the market delivered more than its fair share of twists and turns. There were 3 macroeconomic effects that rippled through the entire global economy: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices soaring, as they “weaponized” their […]

New Commitments in Middle East Around Carbon Capture and Alcoa Gives Updates on Elysis Technology We were struck this week by reports from Saudi Arabia that the Ma’aden smelter intends to pursue a carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) approach to reducing its carbon footprint. During the current COP27 event in Egypt, Ma’aden’ Senior Vice […]

The London Metal Exchange (LME) consultation with industry has come and gone with no action. The Exchange on Friday, Nov. 11, published its response to submissions from the industry on the issue of Russian metals. As a refresher, the LME asked for opinion on three options: • Do nothing • Impose limits on the warranting of […]

The Hard Work Starts Now, Executing on the Announced New Aluminum Capacity After the flurry of announcements in May and July of this year, the three new greenfield aluminum rolling mills are in various stages of execution. Novelis Breaks Ground Official ground breaking took place on Novelis’ Bay Minette, Ala., mill on Oct. 7. The […]

The Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum Just over a year ago, on Oct. 3, 2021, the EU and the US signed an agreement to negotiate on carbon intensity and global overcapacity in both steel and aluminum. This lofty goal seemed to have been trumped by the agreement that the US suspended Section 232 […]

Ingram Marine Group, the largest US barge operator, on Oct. 6 declared force majeure in a letter to customers. The company said low water levels had made it impossible to make timely deliveries. Vessels have run aground near Memphis, Tenn., and there is a logjam of more than 122 vessels/barges near Stack Island, Miss., impeding […]

The London Metal Exchange (LME) has launched a discussion paper on whether to delist Russian primary aluminum from its contract. A discussion paper is like what we do in the US when we ask for public comment on an issue. This decision to ask for market commentary is a 180-degree change of direction from what […]

Aluminum May Be Approaching the End of Its Long Destocking Cycle Last week, I described our premise about demand versus real consumption. We talked about the market’s natural tendency to destock when prices take a beating as they have during most of 2022. The latest Index of Orders from the Aluminum Association offers some early […]

Long liquidation as opposed to short selling? I spoke this week at two diverse industry groups: the Aluminum Extruders Council (AEC) and the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI). While differing in their sector concentration, the audiences had the same questions: • What’s going on with the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price? • Why […]

Natural gas inspired staggering energy prices crush primary aluminum economics The suspension of gas deliveries through the Nord Stream pipeline has further aggravated an already grim energy situation for European aluminum producers. Prices for day-ahead power in Western Europe are stunning in their magnitude: 404 euros/megawatt hour were published on Friday for Germany, France, the […]

End use market demand is mixed as mid-year shipment data is reported The recession, inflation, and interest rates remain hot topics for aluminum producers and consumers. As new economic data is announced, both bright spots and points of concern emerge. First, this month’s report on inflation showed a drop month-on-month (MoM) and may signal that […]

Underlying price function stops sliding and may have found basis for strengthening The London Metal Exchange (LME) may have found a floor to stop the slide it has experienced since April. Topping out near $3,400 metric tons earlier this year, the price of aluminum drifted lower steadily in the second quarter and into the third […]

Ball Corp. earnings alert market to slowing can demand Ball issued its second quarter earnings results on Aug. 4, and they have unsettled the market. The company reported a loss of $174 million while taking a non-cash asset impairment for its Russian operations, which it had previously stated it would suspend future investment in and […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group US International Trade Commission hearings provide little direction Last week in DC, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) held a series of public meetings and hearings to take comments on current Section 232 tariffs. Representatives from throughout the value chain were in attendance. The Aluminum Association participated in a […]

Backward physical integration comes to the aluminum rolling industry SDI’s decision to “jump the fence” and enter the aluminum rolling sector was, in and of itself, blockbuster news. However, the repercussions on the aluminum scrap market may be even more profound. CRU has argued for some time that the big aluminum rolling mills would eventually […]

Kaiser declares force majeure due to an inability to secure its required magnesium  Kaiser Aluminum, which operates a major aluminum can sheet rolling mill in Warrick, Ind., declared force majeure on July 8, citing its inability to obtain enough magnesium to sustain its production. Kaiser’s mill specializes in the production of food container and beverage […]

Century and Alcoa Close Smelter Capacity We talked about the INTALCO saga in a recent column and its inability to find competitive power to re-open this smelter. Power has again reared its ugly head and delivered another serious bite to the industry. Century Aluminum announced on June 24 that it would be immediately curtailing production […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Century Aluminum Falls Prey to the Pitfalls of Day-Ahead Electricity Pricing When we wrote our column last week about INTALCO and the shortcomings of US energy policy, little did we know that we would see another example of this within a week. On Wednesday, June 22, Century Aluminum (CENX) […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group The Saga of the Alcoa INTALCO Aluminum Smelter In April 2020, Alcoa announced its decision to close its Ferndale, Wash., primary aluminum smelter known as INTALCO. This smelter was built in 1966 by the French aluminum giant, Pechiney, and at its peak produced 284,000 metric tons per year. In […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Global Deficit Reduced Again The headline on aluminum fundamentals is that the deficit is shrinking again. We now believe that the global deficit will be about 700,000 metric tons compared to 1,000,000 metric tons in April. This deficit is exclusively held in the World ex-China, as we believe China […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group The First Movers Coalition (FMC) was launched in November 2021 at COP26 as a public-private partnership to decarbonize hard to abate sectors. At that time, the 25 founding members of FMC targeted eight sectors where innovative technology would need to be applied to effect change. The sectors of initial […]

Major capital investments come to the aluminum can sheet market By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group This month, the market has seen two new projects announced in the flat-rolled aluminum product sector: • Novelis will spend $2.5 billion for a new state-of-the art rolling mill in Bay Minette, Ala. • Ball Corporation will partner with […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group The London Metal Exchange announced plans on May 13th to require its members to make weekly reports of their over-the-counter (OTC) transactions to the Exchange. It also set an unusually short consultation period of two weeks for member response. This action is in direct reaction to the debacle in […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group The LME cash price for high grade aluminum continues to give ground, with prices at $2,715 per metric ton versus $2,861 per ton last week. There is still a lot of gloom and doom out there. Fear factor over demand is dominating price discovery Here are a few of […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group US equities market this past week were a microcosm of how fast sentiment can change. It reminded me of a favorite statement I use to explain commodity trading to people outside our world: “Markets move on fear and greed.” Welcome to the fear cycle. This cycle has plenty of […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the aluminum market has fixated on potential sanctions on Russia’s 3+ million metric tons of annual exports. So far, those sanction have not materialized. Several major players have announced their intention to suspend new business with Russia. Emphasis on “new business.” […]

By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group It is natural to speculate about how well demand for aluminum can hold up given the effects of dramatically higher prices, both on aluminum itself and the broader economy. Conversations with many of our clients’ center on concerns about demand destruction. The logic is simple: With gasoline, food and interest […]