Contributor: Brett Linton

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in differing directions this week. Both indices have generally trended downward across 2024, but continue to indicate optimism among steel buyers.

Oil and gas drill rig activity in the US inched lower last week while holding steady in Canada, according to the latest report from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes.

Three out of four of our market survey respondents report that steel mills are open to negotiating new order prices this week, a slight decline compared to our previous market check.

Steel buyers continue to report short mill lead times for both sheet and plate products, according to SMU's latest canvass of the market. Lead times for hot-rolled and plate products marginally increased from our late July survey, likely due to limited restocking in anticipation of upcoming mill outages for scheduled maintenance.

This Premium analysis covers North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts are an advanced indicator of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe, and other steel products.

SMU’s sheet prices increased across the board this week, marking the third consecutive week of rising prices, while plate prices held stable.

Friedman Industries reported positive earnings in its 2024 fiscal first quarter ended June 30.

After nearing a two-year high in May, the volume of finished steel entering the US market (referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’) receded in June, according to SMU’s latest analysis of data from the Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Total US steel exports declined again in June, down 2% month-on-month (m/m) to 773,000 short tons (st) according to the latest US Department of Commerce data.

June steel import data was finalized at 2.15 million short tons (st) this week, down 24% from May according to the latest US Commerce Department release. June represents the lowest monthly import rate seen this year. July import licenses now tally up to 2.29 million st as of Aug. 4, potentially recovering 6% from June. […]

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

SMU’s sheet prices rose by an average of $10 per short ton (st) this week on most products, the second consecutive week of recovering prices. Aside from the marginal uptick seen last week, this is the first instance of increasing sheet prices since the first week of April.

Domestic steel mill output eased last week for the second consecutive week, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Although production has declined, it remains relatively on the high side compared to rates seen across this year.

SMU’s Monthly Review articles summarize important steel market metrics for the prior month. Our July report contains figures updated through July 31.

Following an uptick in mid-July, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both eased this week. Current Buyers Sentiment has been see-sawing for the past few months, now back down to one of the lowest readings recorded since August 2020.

US drill rig activity resumed its downward trend last week according to the latest data from Baker Hughes. Meanwhile Canadian counts ticked higher for the fifth consecutive week. They now stand near a five-month high.

A look back at the evolution of the SMU Steel Summit conference through the eyes of long-time SMU employee Brett Linton.

Buyers continue to report very short mill lead times on sheet and plate products, according to our latest market canvass of steel service center and manufacturer executives

Steel buyers of sheet products say mills are still flexible on spot pricing this week, though less so than two weeks prior, according to our most recent survey data.

The Chicago Business Barometer contracted further in July, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

SMU’s sheet price was largely flat this week, an unusual sight for the better part of the past four months. The same trend was seen for tandem products and plate as well.

Domestic raw steel production eased last week following a seven-week high, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Drilling activity rose in both the US and Canada last week, according to the latest data release from Baker Hughes. US rig activity increased to a six-week high but remains near multi-year lows. Canadian counts continue to improve, now at a 20-week high.

Metalformers expect economic activity to stabilize over the next three months, according to the recently released July Business Conditions Report from the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).

The majority of steelmaking raw material prices declined in June, following the same trend seen in May, according to SMU’s latest analysis.

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) ticked up in June following May’s four-year low, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. While the index improved this month, it continues to indicate weak business conditions among architecture firms.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.

Global steel output eased 2% in June following May’s 14-month high, according to World Steel Association’s (worldsteel) latest release.

Domestic raw steel production rise to a seven-week high last week, according to the latest release by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Raw output from US steel mills now stands at the highest recorded weekly rate since the first week of June.