Contributor: Brett Linton

US rig activity has remained in multi-year low territory since June. Drilling in Canada has edged lower across the last few weeks but remains historically strong.

Following months of fluctuations, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week, now at multi-month highs. Both of our Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.

Steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported stable mill lead times for both sheet and plate steel products.

Most steel buyers SMU polled this week reported that mills remain willing to negotiate new order pricing.

Architecture firms reported stable billings in October, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. This follows 20 months of contracting business conditions.

SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were mixed this week with slight declines across most products and a modest increase in prices for cold-rolled coil.

Domestic raw steel mill production slipped to a five-week low last week, according to the latest figures released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Weekly production is now at the third-lowest level recorded this year.

The number of active oil and gas rigs ticked lower in both the US and Canada last week, according to the latest data released from Baker Hughes.

In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts are an advance indicator of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe and other steel products.

New York state’s manufacturing sector saw substantial recovery in November, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events. Rather than summarizing the comments we collected, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words.

Prices for sheet and plate products were mixed this week. While market participants have noted a post-election uptick in activity, most said that it was (so far) nothing to write home about.

Following a strong August, total heating and cooling equipment shipments eased in September to a five-month low, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

Nucor raised its weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for HRC this week to $750/short ton.

The total amount of finished steel to enter the US market in September fell to its lowest level in seven months, according to our analysis of recent Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data

US counts have hovered in this territory since June, just above multi-year lows. Canadian counts have trended lower since early October but remain historically high.

After rising to a one-year high in August, the volume of steel that exited the country in September fell 10% month on month (m/m) to 760,000 short tons (st).

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices continue to show that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses, though that confidence has eased compared to earlier in the year.

Sheet lead times are stable to slightly extended compared to late-October levels, but are down for all products relative to production times one month ago.

September steel imports were 10% less than August levels, marking the lowest monthly import rate seen this year

Most steel buyers polled in our market poll this week continue to report mills are open to negotiation on new order pricing.  In fact, negotiation rates have been strong for the majority of 2024, trending higher since September.

SMU price indices edged lower this week for all products but one, marking the fifth consecutive week of overall declining prices.

Following three consecutive weekly increases, raw steel production in the US slipped last week to the third-lowest level recorded this year.

Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil was unchanged week on week at $740 per short ton as of Monday, Nov. 4.

Next week promises to be a big week for the country. Could even top the World Series (congrats to the Dodgers). As we all hold our breath to see what happens next, it’s a good time to reflect.

US rig activity has been historically weak since June, hovering just above multi-year lows for four months. Canadian counts have ticked lower in recent weeks but remain strong.

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to a five-month low in October and continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

The premium galvanized-coil prices carry over hot-rolled (HR) coil continues to decline following the uptick seen earlier this year.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

SMU price indices declined again this week for all products other than hot-rolled sheet. Our indices have trended lower across October, falling as much as $75 per short ton (st) in that time.