Contributor: Brett Linton

US counts have hovered in this territory since June, just above multi-year lows. Canadian counts have trended lower since early October but remain historically high.

After rising to a one-year high in August, the volume of steel that exited the country in September fell 10% month on month (m/m) to 760,000 short tons (st).

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices continue to show that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses, though that confidence has eased compared to earlier in the year.

Sheet lead times are stable to slightly extended compared to late-October levels, but are down for all products relative to production times one month ago.

September steel imports were 10% less than August levels, marking the lowest monthly import rate seen this year

Most steel buyers polled in our market poll this week continue to report mills are open to negotiation on new order pricing.  In fact, negotiation rates have been strong for the majority of 2024, trending higher since September.

SMU price indices edged lower this week for all products but one, marking the fifth consecutive week of overall declining prices.

Following three consecutive weekly increases, raw steel production in the US slipped last week to the third-lowest level recorded this year.

Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil was unchanged week on week at $740 per short ton as of Monday, Nov. 4.

Next week promises to be a big week for the country. Could even top the World Series (congrats to the Dodgers). As we all hold our breath to see what happens next, it’s a good time to reflect.

US rig activity has been historically weak since June, hovering just above multi-year lows for four months. Canadian counts have ticked lower in recent weeks but remain strong.

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to a five-month low in October and continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

The premium galvanized-coil prices carry over hot-rolled (HR) coil continues to decline following the uptick seen earlier this year.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

SMU price indices declined again this week for all products other than hot-rolled sheet. Our indices have trended lower across October, falling as much as $75 per short ton (st) in that time.

September marked the lowest month for steel imports so far this year, according to preliminary Census data released by the Commerce Department.

Domestic raw steel production recovered for the third consecutive week last week, according to the latest figures released from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). While up, output remains near one of the lowest rates recorded across 2024.

Nucor has raised its weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil by $20 per short ton (st), now at $740/st as of Monday, Oct. 28.

Global steel mill output totaled 143.6 million metric tons (mt) in September, the lowest monthly rate recorded this year.

US drill rig activity remains near multi-year lows, hovering within a narrow range over the last five months. Canadian counts have stabilized in recent weeks but remain near some the highest levels recorded in the past seven months.

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index suggests steel buyers are still optimistic about their businesses’ ability to succeed in today’s market, though their confidence has significantly declined compared to recent months.

Architecture firms continued to experience soft business conditions through September, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) release by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.

More than nine out of every 10 steel buyers polled by SMU this week reported that mills are flexible on prices for new orders. Negotiation rates have been strong since April and on the rise since early September.

Mill lead times have declined on both sheet and plate products this week, according to steel buyers responding to our latest market survey,

Steel prices ticked lower again this week for most of the products SMU tracks. Our indices have declined as much as $40 per short ton (st) across the last four weeks.

Steelmaking raw material prices strengthened for all but one product in October, a change in pace compared to recent months, according to SMU’s latest analysis.

While up over the week prior, domestic raw steel mill production remains near one of the lowest rates recorded this year.

Nucor Corp. has commissioned SMS group to upgrade its Tuscaloosa, Ala., plate mill.

US rig counts continue to hover near multi-year lows, a trend observed since July. Canadian activity remains strong, just a few rigs shy of a seven-month high.

The volume of finished steel entering the US market declined in August from July, according to SMU’s analysis of data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply,’ we calculate this monthly rate by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.