Contributor: Brett Linton

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Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’, we calculate this volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments with finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.

The volume of steel exported from the country declined in October for the second-consecutive month, following a one-year high in August.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Steel prices have remained relatively stable in recent weeks, though they have generally trended downward since October.

Monthly imports have remained within a relatively narrow range since June, significantly lower than volumes seen earlier this year, but stronger than late-2023 levels.

Since sharply falling in September and October, weekly production has marginally trended higher for the past two months, but remains significantly low compared to levels recorded earlier this year

Never have I been more certain in declaring that those in the steel industry are less certain now than they thought they’d be at this point before the election.

Production times are marginally higher than those seen in recent weeks, now closer to levels witnessed throughout October.

A high percentage of the steel buyers we polled this week continue to respond that mills are open to price negotiation for new spot orders. Rates have been high for the majority of the year.

This week, the spread between SMU's hot rolled and galvanized indices is only a few dollars away from a 16-month low.

Steel sheet prices remain at or near multi-month lows, while plate prices continue edging lower from their mid-2022 peak.

SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our latest report includes data updated through November 30th.

Weekly raw steel production has hovered in this territory for the last two months, now at the sixth lowest rate of the year.

US manufacturing activity contracted again in November for the eighth consecutive month.

The Chicago Business Barometer continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions in November, easing to a six-month low, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

SMU's price indices saw minor fluctuations on sheet products this week, while our plate and Galvalume indices held steady.

On Monday, Nucor published new extras effective Jan, 4, 2025.

Domestic raw steel mill production increased to a four-week high last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Output from steel mills around the globe totaled 152.1 million metric tons (mt) in October, the highest monthly rate recorded since July.

Prices were stable to down in November for all seven steelmaking raw materials tracked by SMU, according to our latest analysis.

US rig activity has remained in multi-year low territory since June. Drilling in Canada has edged lower across the last few weeks but remains historically strong.

Following months of fluctuations, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week, now at multi-month highs. Both of our Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.

Steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported stable mill lead times for both sheet and plate steel products.

Most steel buyers SMU polled this week reported that mills remain willing to negotiate new order pricing.

Architecture firms reported stable billings in October, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. This follows 20 months of contracting business conditions.

SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were mixed this week with slight declines across most products and a modest increase in prices for cold-rolled coil.

Domestic raw steel mill production slipped to a five-week low last week, according to the latest figures released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Weekly production is now at the third-lowest level recorded this year.

The number of active oil and gas rigs ticked lower in both the US and Canada last week, according to the latest data released from Baker Hughes.

In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts are an advance indicator of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe and other steel products.