Contributor: Alex Tuckett

The Trump 1.0 tariffs appeared to have little positive effect on the US manufacturing, partly because they hurt export competitiveness.

Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The Republican party has re-taken control of the Senate. Votes are still being counted in many tight congressional races. But based on results so far, the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. If confirmed, this will give Trump considerable scope to pass legislation pursuing his agenda. What this means for US policy is not immediately obvious. Trump will not be inaugurated until Jan. 20. In the coming weeks and months, he will begin to assemble his cabinet, which may give a clearer signal on his policy priorities and approaches. Based on statements he made during the presidential campaign, we have set out the likely direction of his economic policy here and green policy here.

In this Insight piece, CRU economists explore the possible economic effects of Trump's and Harris' agendas.

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook In December we conducted our annual macroeconomic survey, asking our clients to look into the future of the global economy. As we look back on a year full of challenges for the global economy and head into 2023 full of uncertainty, we explore the […]

In this Global Economic Outlook, we look ahead to 2023 and outline our top ten calls for the global economy. These include predictions on inflation, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles and Covid-19 in China. No. 1: Global Growth Will Slow From 2022 We expect both the US and Europe to experience recessions over the […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Despite some slightly better-than-expected data for Q3, we have further revised down our forecast for 2023. We continue to believe that stubbornly high inflation, the energy crisis, and China’s domestic problems will lead to a sharp slowdown in world growth, with outright recessions in […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook September has reminded us how risky the current global environment is. Stubbornly high inflation, rapidly tightening monetary policy, tight energy markets, and a surging dollar are taking their toll on growth. And the more bad news keeps materializing. In eastern Europe, Russia’s partial mobilization […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The rise in inflation has been a major headwind for the global economy. It has squeezed household incomes and led to a tightening of monetary policy across dozens of countries. Although the price environment in Europe remains red hot, there are tentative signs that […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Energy costs for consumers – in the form of utility bills and the cost of filling a car – have risen sharply, but not as sharply as the cost of crude oil and natural gas. But this doesn’t necessarily mean a lot more pain […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Each of the three largest economies now face a serious risk that could push them into recession: For Europe, the greatest risk is the fall-out from the Ukraine war, particularly the potential impact on energy markets. In China, a resurgence in Covid-19 which has […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has continued to rock commodity and financial markets. We expect the fallout from the invasion to reduce world growth this year and next, through three main channels: Energy prices. Russia is a major producer and exporter of […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook, March 21 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through the world economy. What does war mean for the world economy? We outlined three scenarios in terms of severity of impact from the war itself, but most crucially from sanctions and the response to those […]

In this year’s edition of CRU Breakfast – part of LME Week – we explored three key themes that shaped the commodities markets – the global economic and commodities outlook, the changing role of China, and Navigating ESG. All three themes have been central to many developments in the industry and remain equally crucial moving […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and CRU Chief Economist and Head of Sustainability Jumana Saleheen A disappointing outlook for U.S. Q3 growth, and the problems in China’s construction sector, have led us to downgrade our forecast for 2021 world growth from 5.8% to 5.4%. Our forecast for 2021 growth in Industrial Production has been revised […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Steel Trade Service, Nov. 18 The world economy is facing multiple headwinds. Supply-chain problems continue to hold back industrial sectors and elevate inflation. Meanwhile, an energy crisis is adding to the pressure on manufacturers and consumers. On the demand side, the biggest risk remains the Chinese […]

By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook, Jan. 31 2022 has begun with tentative signs that supply chains are slowly normalizing. Business survey measures of delays, bottlenecks and price pressures in the U.S. and Europe are moderating. PPI inflation looks to have peaked. This is essential to our view that consumer price inflation […]