Final Thoughts

One of our respondents seemed downright philosophical in his judgment of the current situation, with a twist of optimism:

“At some point, some form of tariff will exist on some countries and the economy should pick up some seasonal steam.”

Still, another was decidedly less so:

“Trump recession inbound.”

No one ever likes to hear the “R” word, but here we are. So as we all navigate these uncertain waters, let’s take a look at what our respondents are saying on prices and whether they are meeting their business forecasts. Hope their responses provide you with some insight!

When do you think steel prices will peak?

What respondents are saying:

“Scrap corrected a month earlier than expected. Demand is OK, but not robust.”

“I think the uncertainty caused by tariffs has/will slow buying on all levels, and whether or not it causes more domestic production is questionable.”

“Peaked in short term… followed by another increase cycle July (more or less).”

“The tariff announcements and resulting confusion ended the rally in pricing.”

“We do not believe the soft market can support any further increases.”

“Not enough demand to support price increases.”

“My mill just emailed saying Q3 pricing will come out, and they cautioned me it will be higher than Q2.”

“I think we all knew this run was purely ‘supply-driven,’ but I’m honestly surprised it ended so quickly.”

“Volatile until all trade agreements are settled.”

Where do you think HRC prices will be in two months?

What respondents are saying:

“I think that many have put purchases on hold and that will slow business activity, and steel prices will fall.”

“It’s mainly dependent on scrap. Present confusion keeps buyers on the sidelines.”

“We feel pricing will be stable.”

“The equilibrium will be determined by imports +25%.”

“Mills are trying to ask for close to $1,000 per ton. I don’t think they will get it, but will try to keep pushing into the mid-$900s since scrap is elevated.”

“This is a story we’ve all lived through before. I think the ‘Summer Doldrums’ will be especially nasty this year. Too much market unease and concern.”

“Pricing will stay fairly steady in the next few months. Inventories are healthy, and companies don’t want to devalue their inventories if they can.”

“Inventories are full, demand will slow down, and HRC will stay flat or drop to try and get more business.”

“In my opinion, it will peak up to $1,000/1,100. But if it goes crazy, there is room beyond that.”

“Not much room to grow before demand starts declining.”

“Too much supply. Auto shutdowns to right-size inventory will slow demand.”

How will your company perform this month compared to your forecast?

What respondents are saying:

“Shipped tons were typical for March.”

“My sales are well down from last year at this time.”

“Weather delays simply causes the end-user to hold off on ordering.”

“Our backlog is halfway decent, as surprising as that may be, but we are definitely not taking any big swings out there.”

“Bookings are down due to import and tariff risks.”

“Aggressive growth in forecast. Still ahead of 2024 shipment pace.”

Where to now?

Where do we go from here? We’ll be doing some AI analysis after the Easter holiday.

Still, I thought I’d consult a little old school technology to see if it provided any clarity. Yes, the trusty SMU Magic 8-ball.

OK, let’s hope the new school technology will provide something a little juicier next week. Until then, have a great, restful weekend. We appreciate all your support!