Final Thoughts

One of the things he pointed out was that AI could take unused data, like emails, and analyze it. Well, here at SMU we are sitting on a treasure trove of data from our survey. In particular, our Market Chatter contains comments from survey participants that they generously share in addition to the data they provide on prices, lead times, and other key indicators.

Could there be a method to the madness? Well, SMU’s Brett Linton took his Market Chatter piece from this week and asked ChatGPT to find the patterns.

Here is what it found:

• People are all over the place on prices — some think they’ll fall, others expect them to hold or go up a bit. It mostly depends on how tariffs shake out and where demand goes.
• Most say demand is steady. Some see it picking up with the season (especially for plate), but others think it’s slowing due to all the uncertainty.
• Opinions on tariffs are split. Some say they’re hurting business, others aren’t sure yet, and a few say they’re helping—mainly those focused on US-made steel. Nearly everyone agrees the uncertainty is a problem.
• Inventory is moving about the same or a bit slower than last year. Some pre-bought ahead of price hikes, but most are playing it safe and keeping stock low.
• Imports are cheaper but come with risks. Long lead times, tariffs, and customer preferences for domestic steel are holding people back from buying, even if the deals look good.
• People are quietly concerned about real demand, freight costs, scrap pricing, and how mills are flexing their muscle. Some think the economy and political uncertainty aren’t getting enough attention.

Nothing too earth-shattering, but still a nice summary of the current market. What do you think?

So, we decided to go one step further. We asked ChatGPT for three action items based on the above list.

And the robot says:

1. Keep inventory light and flexible.
With prices uncertain and demand shaky, don’t overbuy. Stay ready to adjust if the market turns.

2. Be cautious but open with imports.
Imports might be cheaper, but long lead times and tariff risks make them tricky. Have options, but don’t rely too heavily on them.

3. Watch your customers closely.
If demand starts slipping, you’ll want to know fast. Pay attention to order flow and customer behavior so you can react quickly.

OK, they may rest a little in Captain Obvious territory, but not too shabby for the free version. Imagine what the pro version could do if we asked it what would be the outcome of Nippon Steel’s deal for U.S. Steel? I wonder what the prediction would have been in 2023, when the deal was first made public and seemed like a slam dunk, compared to what it might be now, with all the uncertainty of US politics thrown into the mix.