US scrap tags drop in April as tariff fog continues

After the decision that exempted Canada and Mexico from reciprocal tariffs was understood, mills felt comfortable to issue prices.

There were a few surprises, though. The reciprocal tariffs did apply to scrap imports (except Canada and Mexico) and more importantly, direct-reduced iron/hot-briquetted iron (DRI/HBI) and pig iron.  This may have eased the downward pressure on market prices, especially for #1 busheling and bundles.

SMU’s April scrap pricing stands at:

• Busheling at $440-470 per gross ton (gt), averaging $455/gt, down $20 from March.
• Shredded at $410-430/gt, averaging $420/gt, off $35 from March.
• HMS at $355-385/gt, averaging $370/gt, down $25 from March.

In general, scrap prices went down uniformly across the various districts in the northern and southern tiers. There had been some predictions that had pegged shredded scrap dropping a full $50/gt, with HMS and busheling at down $40. But the prices paid were less bearish.

In most regions, the primes grades of busheling only dropped ~$20/gt. The reasons for this less-than-expected decline were debatable. 

A source in the South thought the reason was because of the new tariff on pig iron imports made busheling a better deal. 

Another source in the North said there was not a lot of busheling available after heavy selling last month. 

Whatever the reason, it’s apparent this grade is becoming very much sought after, as its price has started to separate from the secondary grades.

On the obsolescent grades of shredded, HMS and plate & structural (P&S), it was a different story. 

Shredded scrap was the weakest, dropping around $40/gt while both HMS and P&S retreated by only ~$30/gt below March levels. The availability of these scrap grades from spring cleanup and export terminals on the East Coast should continue to provide ample material as we go into May. 

Outlook

Looking forward, it appears that the export market is headed lower from early April levels, according to one scrap source contacted by SMU.

This means there could be incentive for US exporters to offer shredded scrap into the domestic again in May at lower prices than April, the source added.

“Assuming level scrap demand and mills back online after outages, that will help to counter some downward pressure from the export market,”he said. 

As for prices next month, he commented: “Best guess at this point is for a sideways or soft sideways for May.”