Economy

New York state manufacturing activity tumbles in March
Written by Brett Linton
March 18, 2025
After a modest recovery in February, business activity in New York state’s manufacturing sector declined sharply in March, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Respondents expressed waning optimism for future business conditions, citing weak capital spending plans, rising input costs, and tightening supply.
“Input price increases climbed for a third straight month to hit their fastest pace in more than two years,” commented New York Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz. The full release is available here.
The General Business Conditions Index contracted by 26 points in March to a one-year low of -20.0. This is a diffusion index, where a positive reading signifies expansion from the prior month, zero indicates no change, and a negative reading signifies contraction.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index has only signaled improving business conditions in 10 of the past 30 months. One year ago the Index stood at -20.9.
Trends
To smooth monthly fluctuations, the Index can be recalculated on a three-month moving average basis (3MMA) to better highlight trends. On this basis, the Index slipped seven points from February to March to an eight-month low of -9.0 (Figure 1). Last year we saw dramatic swings in the 3MMA; it tumbled to a near four-year low of -22.3 in March, then climbed to a near three-year high of 10.3 by November.

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Economy

Steel, manufacturing, and union groups divided on S232 tariffs
Domestic steel trade associations, manufacturing groups, and the United Steelworkers (USW) union had mixed reactions to the implementation of new Section 232 tariffs without exclusions on Wednesday. Trade groups representing steel mills broadly supported President Trump’s actions, while the USW and some groups representing manufacturers were more critical. AISI Kevin Dempsey, president and CEO of […]

CRU: Will US tariff policy be transactional or transformational?
The Trump 1.0 tariffs appeared to have little positive effect on the US manufacturing, partly because they hurt export competitiveness.

Beige Book finds mixed demand trends, tariff concerns
Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of districts. However, manufacturers expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes between late January and February.

Construction spending drops marginally in January
Construction spending edged down slightly in January, slipping for the first time in four months. The US Census Bureau estimated spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196 billion in January, down 0.2% from December’s downward revised rate. The January figure is 3.3% higher than a year ago. January’s result, despite the slight erosion, […]