HVAC equipment shipments slow in December but strong annually

While lower m/m, shipments were 5% higher than a year earlier, marking December as the seventh consecutive month with positive annual growth.

Trends

To smooth out seasonal fluctuations, monthly shipment data can be recalculated on a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis to better highlight trends. On this annualized basis, total shipments experienced a post-Covid surge that peaked early in 2022 and then trended lower through 2023. Shipments began to recover in early 2024 and continued to do so through December; the latest 12MMA has climbed to a 21-month high of 1.86 million units (Figure 1, right).

Shipments by product

• Water heater shipments rose 7% m/m in December to 767,000 units, 5% below levels seen one year prior. Compare this to the two-year high of 887,000 units recorded nine months prior.
• Shipments of warm air furnaces rose 2% m/m in December to 270,000 units. Compared to the same month last year, December shipments were 15% higher this year.
• Air conditioners and heat pump shipments declined in December for the sixth month in a row, falling 27% m/m to 519,000 units. Still, shipments were 19% higher than the same month last year. Note that air conditioner/heat pump shipments are very seasonal, as evident in Figure 2.

All products see annual growth

Figure 3 shows the annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis. For all three product categories, the average monthly shipment rate in 2024 exceeded those of 2023.

• Air conditioners and heat pumps experienced the most significant shipment growth, rising 12% from the previous year to one of the strongest annual growth rates since 2021.
• Warm air furnace shipments grew 5% year over year (y/y) and were also at a multi-year high.
• Water heater shipments saw a modest increase of less than 1% annually. This rate has been steadily declining over the past eight months.

The full press release of this data is available here on the AHRI website.

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