Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by Ethan Bernard
February 4, 2025
We joked in our last Final Thoughts that Wiley trade attorney Tim Brightbill – one of the nation’s leading experts on trade law and policy – would probably be revising his presentation on Trump, trade policy, and tariffs for the Tampa Steel Conference.
He did. And even after those last-minute revisions, he actually got trumped by the news on the first day of the event. Literally Trumped!
As he was interviewed on stage by SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden on Monday afternoon, word went out that Canada would get a 30-day reprieve from 25% tariffs on exports to the US, as Mexico did earlier on Monday. This came after reaching an agreement to combat fentanyl at the border.
Even in today’s world of 24-hour news access, smartphones, and X, you can still get scooped if you take your eyes off a screen even for a few minutes. Fortunately, Brightbill is good at thinking on his feet – and he adapted to the news in real time.
In a panel moderated by Ethan Bernard, steel trader Murat Askin, founder and CEO of StaalX, joked that there’s only one social media he’s following religiously these days: Truth Social.
Though these current Final Thoughts may be a bit rough (the conference ended mere minutes ago), Donald Trump’s tariffs were definitely the dominant theme. Were they a feature of the new administration rather than a bug? Were they early bluster just to address the border? A clever ploy ahead of USMCA negotiations? All opinions were on display.
By the end of the second day on Tuesday, conference participants were suffering from “tariff fatigue.”
Gary Stein of Triple-S, Marc Lerman of Steel Warehouse, and Alliance Steel’s Drew Gross were asked about their collective wisdom in the face of the current chaos. Perhaps it could be boiled down to three words: “Drink, pray, and buy.”
Sage advice, indeed.
They did this all while chomping on cigars that Gary had brought in. Unlit, of course. Florida fire laws were respected.
New mood
With Trump dominating the conversation, one thing that receded into the background was… 2024. Last year’s rather lackluster demand had faded in place of the dynamism of the current moment. The thing is, it’s still hard to say whether the moment is bearish or bullish – whether tariffs (or the threat of them) will on balance help or hurt steel.
Chaos has a way of concentrating you on the current moment, and one thing: survival.
But as Worthington Steel President and CEO Geoff Gilmore pointed out in his fireside chat with SMU Senior Analyst David Schollaert, the steel industry has faced every kind of calamity in the last few years, and come out the other side, just fine.
Of course, these are just a few quick anecdotes that spring to mind. Stay tuned for more coverage of the event in the next few issues.
See you in Tampa in 2026!
It was such a pleasure seeing the nearly 600 attendees at the conference. We got to talk to so many people on the sidelines, and meet so many of our great readers. We can’t wait to see you next year from Feb. 11-13, 2026, in Tampa again. And… before that we will see you in Aug. 25-27 in Atlanta for Steel Summit!
Whether it’s dynamic pricing, a new administration, new capacity, or ongoing trade cases, this promises to be quite an exciting year for steel!
Ethan Bernard
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