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US rig counts decline further, increase in Canada
Written by Brett Linton
January 24, 2025
The number of active oil and gas rigs drilling in the US continued to decline last week, according to Baker Hughes, remaining at a multi-year low. Meanwhile, Canadian drilling activity marched to the beat of a different drum, rising to a near-two-year high this week.
The current US rig count is 576 rigs, marking the lowest weekly rate recorded since December 2021. US drilling activity has been at a reduced level since last June.
Canadian activity continues to rebound following the seasonal slowdown seen in late December and early January. Historically, Canadian counts often surge through February, then decline as warmer weather and thawing ground conditions limit access to drill sites and roads. The last week to see a higher Canadian count was back in March 2023.
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The international rig count, updated monthly, decreased to 909 in December. This is down 10 rigs from the November count and 46 fewer than the same month one year prior.
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The Baker Hughes rig count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), a key end market for steel sheet. A rotary rig rotates the drill pipe from the surface to either drill a new well or sidetrack an existing one.
For a history of the US and Canadian rig counts, visit the rig count page on our website.
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Brett Linton
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Final Thoughts
As February comes to a close this week, the scrap markets are poised for another – and perhaps more extreme – move upward in March. March is usually a month when scrap prices relent as winter’s impediments subside. That’s not the case this year. And this time, the driver of prices will be increased demand from mills along with restricted flows over the last two months.
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Trump signals tariffs on Canada and Mexico will start next week
Tuesday, March 4, marks the end of a 30-day delay in the levies.
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Final Thoughts
The US steel market has whipsawed upward on the prospect of expanded Section 232 tariffs of 25% being applied to imported steel - including downstream goods - on March 12. It seems pretty clear that domestic steel mills have the ear of the Trump administration when it comes to Section 232. The result? The much-anticipated Trump bump has finally arrived - and then some.
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Price: Should billions in Section 232 revenue go to foreign manufacturers or to the American people?
Do we want the benefits of the Section 232 tariffs to flow to the bottom lines of foreign steel and aluminum producers or to the US government and, ultimately, domestic manufacturers and their workers? In our view, the answer is simple. Section 232 exceptions do nothing more than lead to underserved profits for foreign manufacturers who are harming the US industrial base. That revenue could be used to pursue the Trump administration’s other policy priorities - such as deficit reduction or expanded tax cuts.
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SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.