Ferrous scrap tags seen up in February despite weather, other woes

Regarding potential tariffs in February of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, nobody SMU contacted has a definitive prediction on whether they will be imposed. Sources in both the US and Canada agree, however, if they are imposed at 25%, scrap prices in the US will increase and prices in Canada will fall. The US imported 5.13 million metric tons (mt) of ferrous scrap in 2023, according to the USGS. Of the amount, 3.56 million mt were imported from Canada.

Midwest

SMU contacted a procurement executive in the Midwest to learn how the February market could shape up.

He commented the market will be supply driven. “Mills will continue to restock and move reasonable amounts of steel.” 

Looking past February, he added that economic activity will not be enough for scrap prices to continue to rise, but the steel industry is “cautiously optimistic” the new administration will benefit the sector.

Another Ohio-based source has related to SMU that scrap shipment to the mills in January are way behind schedule.

Dealers in this region are having trouble filling their January orders due to poor inbound flows.

“There is virtually no peddler trade,” he said.

He continued that it’s been so cold that processing equipment is either not running or is impaired.

Mills are contacting their scrap suppliers urging them to fill their orders. Needless to say, order cancellations are not being considered.

A Midwestern scrap executive agreed that scrap supply is limited due to poor prices and extremely bad weather. He predicts scrap prices will increase $20/gt over January.

He qualified this prediction saying, “If they went up $40, would they get more scrap?” 

The executive also cautioned market observers about increased domestic shipments of shredded scrap from export terminals on the East Coast.

Assuming logistics are favorable, selling shredded to mills in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana—where prices should hover around $400/gt—may be better than selling to Turkey at $365/gt CFR.

The South

The South has been hit by unusually bad winter weather with New Orleans and Mobile, Ala., receiving over six inches of snow.

The storm is now heading to southern Georgia and the Carolinas.

One of SMU’s sources in this region said most of the yards in Alabama and S. Georgia are closed. However, the scrap facilities in Tennessee and N. Georgia are open.

His prediction is the Southern US market will increase, probably by $20/gt.

He confirmed there was significant domestic sales from the Northeastern-based export yards into mills located in the Deep South via rail and the coastal mills in the Carolinas, via barge.

One issue upon all our sources agree on is things cannot get significantly better for ferrous scrap as we venture into 2025, unless demand for steel—especially hot-rolled coil—appreciably improves. If it stays where it is, so will scrap.