Final Thoughts

SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden sat down with Bell on Wednesday for a Community Chat. Trump and trade featured prominently in the discussion. So did news ripped from the headlines, such as the ongoing saga that is the Nippon Steel/U.S. Steel deal. (Recall that President Biden recently kicked the can on unwinding that deal into June. What comes next, it seems, is up to President-elect Trump.)

I’ve highlighted a few of the issues Bell touched in this column. And I definitely recommend checking out the whole talk here.

Nippon-USS as a teachable moment

While Bell didn’t comment on any of the specific dynamics around the Nippon deal – there are a lot of moving parts! – he was clear about one of the takeaways from the issue.

“This underscores how important domestic steelmaking is to our nation’s economy and our national security. And keep in mind, whatever the outcome is, this transaction is going to reshape the global steel landscape,” Bell said.  

In the meantime, he looks at all of the press around the deal as a kind of Steel 101 for the general public. (Not related to SMU’s Steel 101 in March.) “I think you’re seeing people who normally would not be interested in the steel industry taking a keen interest in it,” he said. “They’re learning about the various steelmaking processes.”

Does the controversy surrounding the deal revolve around the name “U.S. Steel” and its iconic status? Not necessarily. Bell said people would be keeping close tabs on a deal of that size no matter what. There is “some romanticism and a little bit of nostalgia about it, but I do think that attention would be paid to this,” Bell said.

Foreign ownership might be relatively common in the US now. But, Bell said, “We are in a different landscape than we were in a decade ago,” adding: “I think the political landscape has shifted.”

And he underlined that no matter what happens, “SMA is ready to lead the domestic steel industry and to support the players.”

What to expect out of the gate

In December, the SMA published a five-point action plan for steel and sent it to the Trump administration. Bell noted “the pillars of that action plan were first and foremost to strengthen tariffs and to make sure that we have strong trade laws that support domestic manufacturing.”

“We have to stand up to unfair trade practices,” Bell said. He added that another important piece of that action plan was to stop the regulatory overreach that he said had taken place during the Biden administration.

“We have agencies out there that are issuing guidance on everything from ‘buy clean’ standards to particulate matter,” Bell said. “These are all things that hinder the growth of manufacturing, the growth of domestic steel, and the growth of our economy.”

He also predicted that the incoming Trump administration would prioritize reforming and streamlining the permitting process. It will in addition look to institute “a pro-growth tax policy.”

Finally, Bell said, the US needs to leverage its “environmental advantage” as the producer of “the cleanest, most sustainable, lowest-emission steel in the world.”

He continued: “So if we could see those things coming out the gate, that would be very good.”

Carbon border tax?

Bell said he was not in favor of a carbon border tax and instead rephrased the argument.

“What we support is a ‘foreign pollution fee’,” he said. “I think there needs to be some kind of mechanism in place that says, ‘If this steel has higher emissions than the equivalent domestically produced product, there’s some kind of fee or price that you pay to get that steel into our country.’”

Bell also blasted the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is set to go into effect on Jan. 1, 2026. “By no means do we support any type of carbon tax or adjustment on domestic steel producers. We don’t need it. We already make low-emission steel,” he said.

Still, it’s important to pay close attention to EU CBAM developments. “Is that going to continue to cripple their steel industry, and are they going to just keep pushing ahead with it and have this unrealistic expectation that other countries should adopt a similar mechanism?” Bell asked.

On whether the US would end up doing something similar to CBAM, he was blunt. “I can assure you, there is no evidence whatsoever that the United States will come up with anything even remotely resembling a European CBAM.”

USMCA

A lot of the industry is wondering what will happen when the USMCA agreement comes under review next year. Note that USMCA is up for periodic review in July 2026.

It could be renegotiated. But it could also be extended for an additional 16 years at that point “if all parties agree to that,” Bell said.

The USMCA entered into force on July 1, 2020, under the first Trump administration. Bell said there were some particular areas that would be scrutinized during the periodic review.

“I think we’re going to have to look at making sure we have a strong melt-and-pour standard for the US, Canada, and Mexico. I think we need to take another look at rules of origin and domestic content requirements. And then we need to kind of work on that behind-the-scenes, back-office stuff.”

That includes “the transparency, accuracy, and sharing of data between the three countries through import monitoring and other mechanisms,” Bell said.

“I think all of those are on the table for this periodic review,” he added. “I think that President-elect Trump should be very proud of the USMCA. I think it was a landmark piece of legislation in many respects and could serve as a template for other FTAs” (free trade agreements).

End on a high note

What’s something that’s not on the industry’s radar that should be? “We all need to look at — particularly EAF producers — the availability of graphite electrodes. I think that’s kind of been unheralded,” Bell said.

That’s especially so with all the new EAF capacity coming online, he noted.

Recall that a graphite electrode shortage in 2017 caused electrode prices to spike. EAFs were more exposed to the shortage than their integrated counterparts. And some stainless EAFs implemented higher surcharges to cover the costs.

But Bell ended the chat on a bullish note. “These are great times to be in the steel industry,” he said. “We have survived every type of political, economic, geopolitical environment there is – and we’re still here.”

He concluded: “It’s a wonderful and glorious industry, and we should all be glad to be a part of it. And we should make 2025 our year!”

Tampa Steel Conference

On SMU’s upcoming Tampa Steel Conference (Feb. 2-4), Bell said, “SMA is a sponsor, that event continues to grow in popularity and relevance, and you’ve got a great lineup of speakers.”

There’s still time to register. If you’re interested, click here.