Ferrous Scrap

Miller on Scrap: Optimism in market as we kick off new year?

Written by Stephen Miller

January 2, 2025

The ferrous scrap markets start the year off in a battered condition after a real drubbing in 2024. There is optimism, but this was felt at times last year, only to succumb to the reality of weak demand and lower steel production.

Will this change in 2025 as many steel industry trade groups and some national economists are predicting? Or will the similar patterns continue into Q1’25? SMU has contacted industry insiders in the scrap trade to learn what they are seeing.

North Central/Great Lakes

One executive in the North Central/Great Lakes region said, “I’ve been pessimistic during the last year and have been right. I want to be optimistic now.” 

However, he said he still doesn’t see the numbers adding up to a level where the scrap markets can see appreciable improvement.   

A quick look around his area doesn’t reveal an increase in buying levels, as steel prices have not increased and the melt rates are still static to down.

Another hurdle for the Chicago district is the lock closing on the Illinois River. The flow of barges going south is limited and will shut off in late January. This will keep scrap from flowing to the mills along the Lower Mississippi River and increase the amount available for Chicago area-based buyers during most of Q1’25.

South

Traveling to the South, an executive there believes there is no January upside in the region, but “no downside, either.” 

Most scrap buyers are still on holiday until next week. There should be more information available then, he added. He was unsure about the restricted scrap flows from Chicago caused by the Illinois River lock closing affecting prices in the region.

Keeping on track

It may be a little too early to get a reliable handle on what scrap prices will do as we begin the new year. SMU will follow up as more information becomes available on domestic activity.

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40+ years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.

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