New York state manufacturing activity stable in December

The General Business Conditions Index declined 31 points in December to 0.2. This is a diffusion index, where a positive reading signifies expansion, zero indicates no change, and a negative reading signifies contraction.

“The pace of price increases moderated, and employment declined modestly. Firms were fairly optimistic about future conditions,” commented New York Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz. The full release is available here.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index has only indicated improving business conditions for nine months out of the last two years. This time last year the Index registered -14.5.

To smooth monthly fluctuations, the Index can be recalculated on a three-month moving average basis (3MMA) to better highlight trends. As a 3MMA the Index eased four points from November to December to 6.5. This is the second-highest 3MMA recorded in nearly three years, second to November’s 10.3 high (Figure 1). Recall that earlier this year the 3MMA Index had fallen to -22.3 in March, the fourth-lowest figure within our 15-year data history (only greater than the months of April, May, and June 2020).

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.