CRU aluminum news roundup

ACEA says this agreement will ensure economic growth for both regions, while promoting sustainable development through enhanced environmental and social commitments.

“The conclusion of this deal will contribute to strengthening the global competitiveness of European automobile manufacturers by eliminating high tariffs and addressing technical barriers to trade in their exports to the Mercosur market,” stated Sigrid de Vries, Director General of ACEA. “This positive news comes at a pivotal moment for the automotive industry, which is currently facing critical challenges in the transition towards decarbonization.”

At the same time, amid rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, this agreement sends a strong signal to the rest of the world in support of free, open and rules-based trade, ACEA concluded.

Mercosur is a South American trading bloc.

Aluminum can recycling rates slip in US, latest report shows

UBC recycling rates in the US have declined to 43% from 45% in 2020, according to 2023 data from the Aluminum Association and the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI). The organizations blame aging recycling infrastructure and a passive approach to recycling policy. The latest data was based on a survey of aluminum can recyclers, can makers, government, and other data sources. The 2023 rate is far below the average rate of approximately 52% since tracking began in 1990. The organization adds that while it exceeds the equivalent recycling rate for glass (39.6%) and PET bottles (20%), recycling rates for aluminum cans are at their lowest point in decades.

CMI President Robert Budway declared: “Greater coordinated action and increased long-term strategic investments are necessary to raise the aluminum beverage can recycling rate. Our recycling primer and roadmap demonstrates how we can achieve our targets of a 70% recycling rate by 2030, 80% by 2040, and 90% by 2050.”

He added: “Certain policy prescriptions, such as comprehensive extended producer responsibility (EPR) laws that include recycling refunds (deposit return systems), will greatly improve recovery of beverage containers. However, not every local jurisdiction will consider these frameworks.”

Budway noted CMI members are also focused on “improving household and away-from-home recycling access, increasing consumer education for recycling and developing more efficient aluminum beverage can sortation at recycling centers to help reach our goals.”

Chinese semis exports surge in November ahead of tax rebate cancellation

China exported 669,000 metric tons (mt) of unwrought aluminum and products in November, Chinese customs reported today – up 15.9% month over month (m/m) and 36.6% year over year (y/y). The increase, as we expected, is due to fabricators rushing to deliver semis products ahead of the cancellation of the export rebate from Dec. 1 Year-to-date (YTD) exports through to November now amount to 6.16 million mt of unwrought aluminum and products, up 18.8% y/y from the same period last year.

Several fabricators have reported to us higher exports in November. One mid-scale extruder said they exported around 5,800 mt of extruded products in November. Usually, they export 3,000–3,500 mt per month. It was added that December orders will be lower, although they are unsure of the extent.

In addition, they shared it has proven difficult to transfer the higher export cost to their overseas clients. Another large-scale extruder also indicated that they exported more volumes in November. Still, though, with stable orders in December as many orders were placed before the announcement.

However, they expressed certain concern about orders declining in the future. Furthermore, we heard similar feedback from several rolling mills, with more exports in November and the expectation of lower exports based on new orders so far. However, it is expected that the higher LME price and weaker RMB will help offset some of this additional cost.  

A large number of Chinese semis exporters have been trying to add the 13% VAT rebate loss (, which we estimate at around $500/mt) to the conversion fees, depending on the products. It will take time for buyers and sellers to agree on new terms. Some rolling mills said they managed to add the 13% VAT rebate loss to their prices, in particular for products such as foil or brazing sheet as the capacity outside China is limited. Some rolling mills have had to absorb 20–30% of the VAT rebate loss for themselves, passing the remaining 70–80% onto their clients. Other rolling mills have taken a wait-and see approach.

Turkey launches second sunset review of anti-dumping against Chinese foil

The Turkish Ministry of Trade has launched its second sunset review of anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese aluminum foil with a thickness of ≤0.2 millimeters (mm). The products involved are the HS codes 7607.11 and 7607.19. During the investigation of the case, the current anti-dumping duties remains in effect the statement says.

On Dec. 21, 2013, Turkey launched an anti-dumping investigation on aluminum foil originating from China. On July 26, 2014, Turkey made an affirmative final ruling on the case and began to impose an anti-dumping duty of 22% on the CIF price. On May 25, 2019, Turkey launched the first sunset review investigation on the case. On Jan. 4, 2020, the Turkish Ministry of Trade decided to continue imposing an anti-dumping duty of 22% on the products involved.

This analysis was first published by CRU. To learn about CRU’s global commodities research and analysis services, visit www.crugroup.com.