SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Buyers say most mills still flexible on prices

December 5, 2024

A high percentage of the steel buyers we polled this week continue to respond that mills are open to price negotiation on new spot orders. Rates have been high for the majority of the year.

Every other week, SMU surveys hundreds of steel market executives, asking if domestic mills are flexible on new spot order pricing. This week, 88% of our buyers reported that mills would talk price to secure a new order (Figure 1). This is one of the higher rates recorded this year, just below the all-time high seen in late-October (93%). This time last year we saw much lower negotiation rates, between 29-50% in November and December.

Negotiation rates by product

Negotiation rates remain high for both sheet and plate products, as seen in Figure 2. Rates were highest for hot rolled, galvanized, and plate products. Negotiation rates by product this week are:

Hot rolled: 96%, up seven percentage points from Nov. 20 and the highest rate recorded since February.
Cold rolled: 72%, up one percentage point.
Galvanized: 92%, up three percentage points.
Galvalume: 84%, down nine percentage points.
Plate: 91%, up three percentage points.

Here’s what some survey respondents had to say:

“We aren’t buying any plate mill-direct right now, but every mill rep we talk to is hungry for tons. Lead times are just too short.”

“Mills will talk if shopping [hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized] tonnage.”

“Negotiable on hot rolled and plate for larger volumes.”

“Negotiable on plate, with tons and the fit.”

“If they have open capacity for the grade we are buying [hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized].”

“Mills are trying to hold hot rolled pricing on the spot market but demand is weak currently.”

“I was able to get a bit off of an already high galvanized quote at a mini-mill (so not really any negotiation).”

“Integrated mills are not negotiable on hot rolled.”

Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge their steel suppliers’ willingness to negotiate new order prices. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. Visit our website to see an interactive history of our steel mill negotiations data.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.