SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers say most mills still flexible on prices
Written by Brett Linton
December 5, 2024
A high percentage of the steel buyers we polled this week continue to respond that mills are open to price negotiation on new spot orders. Rates have been high for the majority of the year.
Every other week, SMU surveys hundreds of steel market executives, asking if domestic mills are flexible on new spot order pricing. This week, 88% of our buyers reported that mills would talk price to secure a new order (Figure 1). This is one of the higher rates recorded this year, just below the all-time high seen in late-October (93%). This time last year we saw much lower negotiation rates, between 29-50% in November and December.
Negotiation rates by product
Negotiation rates remain high for both sheet and plate products, as seen in Figure 2. Rates were highest for hot rolled, galvanized, and plate products. Negotiation rates by product this week are:
- Hot rolled: 96%, up seven percentage points from Nov. 20 and the highest rate recorded since February.
- Cold rolled: 72%, up one percentage point.
- Galvanized: 92%, up three percentage points.
- Galvalume: 84%, down nine percentage points.
- Plate: 91%, up three percentage points.
Here’s what some survey respondents had to say:
“We aren’t buying any plate mill-direct right now, but every mill rep we talk to is hungry for tons. Lead times are just too short.”
“Mills will talk if shopping [hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized] tonnage.”
“Negotiable on hot rolled and plate for larger volumes.”
“Negotiable on plate, with tons and the fit.”
“If they have open capacity for the grade we are buying [hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized].”
“Mills are trying to hold hot rolled pricing on the spot market but demand is weak currently.”
“I was able to get a bit off of an already high galvanized quote at a mini-mill (so not really any negotiation).”
“Integrated mills are not negotiable on hot rolled.”
Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge their steel suppliers’ willingness to negotiate new order prices. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. Visit our website to see an interactive history of our steel mill negotiations data.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.