US, offshore HR prices trend lower together

SMU’s check of the market on Tuesday, Oct. 15, put average domestic HR tags at $690 per short ton (st), down $5/st from the week before. US hot band did rebound from July’s 20-month low, but prices have since varied little, with average prices rising just $55/st over the past nearly three months.

Domestic HR is now theoretically 4.7% more expensive than imported material. That’s nearly flat, just a touch above last week’s reading of 4.6%. While the gains have been negligible at times, prices are still up from late July, when stateside products were ~12% cheaper than imported HR.

In dollar-per-ton terms, US HR is now, on average, $32/st more expensive than offshore product (see Figure 1). That’s flat compared to last week. Prices are still up $104/st from late July when US tags were ~$72/st cheaper than offshore material.

The charts below compare HR prices in the US, Germany, Italy, and Asia. The left-hand side highlights prices over the last two years. The right-hand side zooms in to show more recent trends.

Methodology

This is how SMU calculates the theoretical spread between domestic HR coil prices (FOB domestic mills) and foreign HR coil prices (delivered to US ports): We compare SMU’s weekly US HR assessment to the CRU HR weekly indices for Germany, Italy, and East and Southeast Asian ports. This is only a theoretical calculation. Import costs can vary greatly, and that can influence the true market spread.

We add $90/st to all foreign prices as a rough means of accounting for freight costs, handling, and trader margin. This gives us an approximate CIF US ports price to compare to the SMU domestic HR coil price. Buyers should use our $90/st figure as a benchmark and adjust up or down based on their own shipping and handling costs. If you import steel and want to share your thoughts on these costs, please get in touch with the author at david@steelmarketupdate.com.

Asian HRC (East and Southeast Asian ports)

As of Thursday, Oct. 17, the CRU Asian HRC price was $480/st, a $4/st decrease vs. the week prior. Adding a 25% tariff and $90/st in estimated import costs, the delivered price of Asian HRC to the US is approximately $690/st. As noted above, the latest SMU US HR price is $690/st on average.

The result: US-produced HR is theoretically even with steel imported from Asia. Despite the sideways week-over-week (w/w) margin move, it’s a far cry from late December, when US HR was $281/st more expensive than Asian products.

Italian HRC

Italian HR prices declined $3/st to $547/st this week, according to CRU. After adding import costs, the delivered price of Italian HR is, in theory, $637/st.

That means domestic HR coil is still theoretically $53/st more expensive than imports from Italy. That spread is unchanged w/w as both markets edged lower. Recall that US HR was $297/st more costly than Italian hot band just five months ago.

German HRC

CRU’s German HR price moved down $7/st to $556/st this week. After adding import costs, the delivered price of German HR coil is, in theory, $646/st.

The result: Domestic HR is theoretically $44/st more expensive than product imported from Germany, up $2/st w/w. Stateside hot band was at an $18/st discount just about a month ago. At points in 2023, in contrast, US HR was as much as $265/st more expensive than imported German hot band.

Notes: Freight is important when deciding whether to import foreign steel or buy from a domestic mill. Domestic prices are referenced as FOB the producing mill. Foreign prices are CIF, the port (Houston, NOLA, Savannah, Los Angeles, Camden, etc.). Inland freight, from either a domestic mill or from the port, can dramatically impact the competitiveness of both domestic and foreign steel. It’s also important to factor in lead times. In most markets, domestic steel will deliver more quickly than foreign steel. Effective Jan. 1, 2022, Section 232 tariffs no longer apply to most imports from the European Union. It has been replaced by a tariff rate quota (TRQ). Therefore, the German and Italian price comparisons in this analysis no longer include a 25% tariff. SMU still includes the 25% Section 232 tariff on prices from other countries. We do not include any antidumping (AD) or countervailing duties (CVD) in this analysis.