Final Thoughts

You may remember this from such hits as The Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum. The US and EU had a deadline of Oct. 31, 2023. One particular sticking point was the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that goes into effect in Europe next year. It’s widely viewed as a non-starter in the US. What would happen? Who would bend?

Turns out no one. A compromise never came. Both sides merely extended their existing trade arrangements for 15 months. One thing of note for those expert in math calculations: 15 months after Oct. 31, 2023… is after the US presidential election.

Play suspended

Nippon Steel’s play for Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel was first announced last December. Most people thought of it as a sure thing; at least, that was the general consensus. A US ally that already had investments here and a big pocketbook. It just made sense. What could go wrong?

Cleveland-Cliffs and the United Steelworkers (USW) union were against the deal almost from the start. Soon, notable politicians piled on. And then, current and former presidents (Joe Biden and Donald Trump, respectively) joined the fray. And when Biden said he wouldn’t run for re-election, Democratic nominee and current Vice President Kamala Harris said she opposed the buy.

The tension mounted. It seemed like it was fourth and goal, and the crowd was on its feet. At least we were here at SMU. How would it affect the country when people went to the polls?

Well, in this case, the decision was punted. Last month, it was reported that no decision would come before the election.

Strike out

We all remember United Auto Workers (UAW) President Shawn Fain’s colorful language during the union’s strike last year. Apparently, he wasn’t fond of billionaires. International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) President Harold J. Daggett took a look at Fain’s playbook and said: Hold my beer.

The ILA  and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) were locked in contract negotiations that affected thousands of workers along the East and Gulf Coasts. The deadline was Oct. 1.

In an interview in September, Daggett promised that a strike would “cripple” the US economy. His language on other matters was colorful as well. And there was an implicit promise of doom. I’m sure the incumbent administration wasn’t thrilled about such an event unfolding in the October surprise time frame.

A reprieve never came, though, and the strike went ahead on Monday. Supply-chain snarls? Would other unions, notably the Teamsters (also fond of colorful language), join in?

And then the strike ended on Thursday. That is, a tentative agreement was reached to extend the current contract until Jan. 15.

While that’s after the election, keep in mind that Inauguration Day is Jan. 20. I’m sure everything will be fine.

So, as this month unfolds, what other surprises could be in store for us? In an effort not to tempt fate, perhaps it’s best not to speculate. Still, let’s just hope the ultimate kick the can doesn’t take place.

I mean, they can’t suspend the election until after the election. Good logic must always prevail. Until Nov. 5, though, we’ll just be keeping an especially close eye on things, and carrying a rabbit’s foot.