HVAC equipment shipments strong through July

On an annualized 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis, shipments have begun to tick higher across the last few months. This follows a significant decline from mid-2022 through the start of this year, following the post-Covid surge. The latest 12MMA for total shipments is 1.79 million units through July, 2% lower than the same period last year.

July shipments of residential and commercial storage water heaters fell 6% m/m, now down to a one-year low of 726,000 units. (Recall that we saw a two-year high of 887,000 units in March). July shipments are 15% higher than levels seen one year ago. Total monthly water heater shipments have averaged 806,000 units over the past year.

Following the 20-month high rate seen in June, warm air furnace shipments declined 16% m/m to a combined 257,000 units in July. This is 20% higher than levels seen one year prior. Furnace shipments have averaged 250,000 units per month across the past year.

Shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps eased 3% m/m in July to a total of 1.04 million units. This follows a two-year high recorded the month prior of 1.08 million units. Note that air conditioner/heat pump shipments are very seasonal, with slowdowns experienced throughout the winter months as evident in Figure 2. Total air conditioner and heat pump shipments are 22% greater than the same month one year prior. Shipments have averaged 735,000 units per month across the past year.

The full press release of this data is available here on the AHRI website.

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