SMU survey: Lead times shrink across the board

Average plate lead times also eased this week to just under four weeks. This marks the lowest level recorded in over four years (tied with late July).

Overall, current steel mill production times are within a few days of those seen a month ago. Some are slightly extended, and others slightly contracted, but all remain near historical lows.

Table 1 below summarizes current lead times and recent trends.

Compared to late August, the upper and lower limits of our lead time ranges have eased for three sheet products and widened for plate.

• The longest lead times in both our cold rolled and galvanized ranges shortened from nine weeks to eight weeks.
• The shortest lead time in our Galvalume range decreased from seven weeks to six weeks.
• Our range of plate lead times has widened to between two and six weeks (from three to five weeks previously).

Survey results

Over half of the companies surveyed this week responded that current mill production times were within typical levels (53%). The vast remainder commented that lead times were shorter than normal (42%), while 5% said they were slightly longer than normal.

We also polled buyers on where they think lead times would be two months from now. Most respondents believe lead times will be flat through November (62% this week vs. 60% in our last survey). Only 24% forecast production times to extend further (unchanged from late August). Just 14% of buyers expect lead times to shrink (vs. 17% in mid-August).

Here’s what respondents are saying about lead times:

“Things are already pretty short, and after the fall outages are done, we expect things to shorten up even further.”

“Mill shutdowns for maintenance will play into longer lead times.”

“Customers have already stocked for steel mill outages.”

“Unless capacity changes are made or demand increases, the market will continue to be flat until after the election.”

“Extending due to trade cases and slight improvement in the overall market.”

“Lead times will flatten after extending a little bit more.”

Figure 1 below tracks lead times for each product over the past two years.

3MMA lead times

Viewing lead time data on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can smooth out the variability in our biweekly readings and better highlight trends.

Through Sept. 11, 3MMA lead times moved in differing directions for sheet products while easing for plate. All 3MMA lead times remain near lows not seen since late 2023. This downward trend has been evident for the last six months.  

The hot rolled 3MMA is now at 4.79 weeks, cold rolled at 6.67 weeks, galvanized at 6.99 weeks, Galvalume at 6.99 weeks, and plate at 4.44 weeks.

Figure 2 highlights lead time movements over the past four years.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data, visit our website. If you’d like to participate in our survey, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.