SMU Data and Models
Apparent steel supply picks up in July
Written by Brett Linton
September 10, 2024
Following June’s slump, the amount of finished steel entering the US market partially rebounded in July, according to SMU’s analysis of data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).
Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply,’ we calculate this monthly volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then deduct total US steel exports.
Apparent supply rose to 8.38 million st in July, up by 264,000 short tons (st), or 3%, from June and less than 1% below the average monthly rate of 2024. Recall that in June we saw the greatest month-on-month (m/m) decline in apparent supply witnessed in over two years. Earlier this year we saw supply climb to a 21-month high of 8.90 million st in May.
Trends
To smooth out the variability seen month to month, we can calculate supply levels on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to better highlight long-term trends. The 3MMA through July eased to a three-month low of 8.46 million st, having reached an 11-month high in May. Compare this to the 2023 monthly supply average of 8.49 million st and the 2022 average of 8.83 million st. Supply on a 3MMA basis has generally trended downward over the past three years, following the November 2021 peak at 9.87 million st.
Looking across the last four months, July apparent supply represents the second-lowest monthly rate. In this time frame we have witnessed a general decline in both finished imports and domestic mill shipments. The increase seen from June to July was primarily due to a 301,000-st (17%) recovery in finished imports, slightly negated by a 46,000-st (6%) decline in exports.
Figure 4 shows year-to-date (YTD) monthly averages for each statistic over the last four years. The average monthly supply level for the first seven months of 2024 now stands at 8.45 million st, 2% less than the same period last year. Currently, 2022 holds the highest YTD monthly average in our recent history at 8.78 million st. Over this period we have seen consistent growth in finished imports, while domestic shipments and total exports have fluctuated.
To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Brett Linton
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