Steel Summit 2024: Beaulieu’s swan song, a 2030 depression

Short-term forecasts

In the near term, Beaulieu anticipates a mixed economic landscape through the remainder of 2024. Despite the mediocre business conditions of this year, he noted that the stable financial status of consumers and healthy business cash balances helped to mitigate any economic downturn. He warned that rising government debt is contributing to increasing inflation, an unstoppable trend already in place. Beaulieu shared concerns for rising electricity costs due to increased demand from technology and EVs. He also foresees increasing production costs driven by retiring baby boomers and labor shortages.

“We simply don’t have enough labor in this country for the jobs being created,” he remarked.

Beaulieu maintains a positive outlook for the near future, foreseeing economic expansion in the next two years. He forecasts a modest recovery in the industrial economy and a growing service sector in 2025. Regarding the steel industry, he expects US iron and steel production to continue experiencing a mild decline before improving in the second half of next year.

Prepare for a depression

Looking further down the road, Beaulieu warned, “Enjoy the rest of the decade because 2030 depression is coming.” He attributed this to a combination high inflation, rising interest rates, an aging global population, and unsustainable levels of government debt. These factors will contribute to financial strain in the US, reduced economic growth, and an increased social service burden.

Regarding interest rates, Beaulieu remarked they may ease 25-50 basis points by the end of the year. He does not foresee rates moving much lower, instead predicting they will increase through the end of the decade, potentially easing in the 2030s.

Planning for the future

Beaulieu advised Summit attendees on how to prepare for these future challenges. He advised attendees to focus on their competitive advantages and to improve efficiencies now rather than later. He stressed the importance of inflation-proofing businesses. He also noted that presidential elections will not have a significant influence the economy, and to ignore the media noise.

When asked about his retirement, Alan remarked that after consulting numerous business leaders around the world, he has come to believe that, “you have to know when it’s time to get out of the way.”

He proudly shared that ITR has some brilliant millennials who will take the company to a different level. Alan looks forward to spending time with his grandkids and exploring the country with his wife in their RV.