Steel market chatter this week

This year marked my 14th year attending or involved in the Summit. Watching the event transform from barely 100 attendees in 2010 to over 1,500 this year has been amazing. Everyone was excited to be there in Atlanta this year. The camaraderie was evident all around the convention center and hotel lobbies. From the exceptional speakers to the impressive exhibition hall to the photogenic lattes, this year’s Summit was one of the best.

On the heels of the event, we polled steel buyers earlier this week on an array of topics, from steel price expectations and demand to inventories and evolving market events. Many of these comments echo remarks made by steel executives last week, both on stage and amongst the crowd. Rather than summarizing the comments we collected this week, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our bi-weekly market questionnaires.

Steel prices are moving higher. How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“I believe pricing will increase slowly. Reasons: October mill outages, threatened ILA strike, Vietnam AD situation.”

“Slightly higher.”

“Slight uptick until after the election.”

“Very small increases – no demand.”

“Slowly continue to rise through the end of the year/election. Very few imports.”

“I am expecting increases through October.”

“I would expect near term to maybe increase a bit more, but then ultimately pricing will be under pressure again after the outages finish up.”

“They will move up another 10% then stabilize due to offshore pricing is lower and demand is still weak vs major run-up of demand shorter term.”

“We honestly don’t think they’ll move higher for much longer. This ‘rally’ will be short lived.”

“Coil will slowly rise, plate will slowly fall.”

“Plate may have a little room to dip buy very little, then gradually creep up in Q4.”

“Flat – low volumes, automotive taking units out of their schedules.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is declining, stable on contract but spot buying is dead and we are seeing some reductions in automotive and a level of destocking.”

“Demand seems stable to down for most folks we talk to. Some of that is just late ‘summer doldrums,’ of course.”

“Stable, due to interest rates starting to fall and construction is increasing.”

“Stable but lackluster.”

“Stable at best, plate buyers are mostly sidelined due to uncertainty of the market. People are sitting on their hands.”

“While a mixed bag, overall real demand appears to be slightly on the decline. Major market moving segments are slow to recover, perhaps awaiting the outcome of Fed decisions and election.”

“Demand is weak – high interest rates, lousy economy and election year instability.”

“No, still sluggish.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Slower, as demand remains soft.”

“I think slower because of most industries being down year-over-year.”

“Slower due to slowed demand and high interest rates.”

“Slower – slowing economy, high interest rates.”

“Maybe a bit slower.”

“Slower.”

“Inventory continues to move faster for us, but we continue taking market share, so we’re not a true representation.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Yes, import pricing is 10% lower than domestic on sheet.”

“Yes, but we aren’t taking the bait.”

“Not really – with an upward market, too much uncertainty with imports.”

“No, lead time & spread too soft & unpredictable domestic market.”

“No.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Is there an immediate upturn depending on what the election brings?”

“The potential ILA strike- it’s a real threat.”

“How much of ‘big steel’s’ optimism for 2025 is tied up in government subsidized projects? And will they truly materialize at the levels of optimism?”

“It seems less likely that AHMSA will be a factor, for better or for worse. Evraz-NA is still puzzling. I do expect more service center consolidation ahead too.”

“Evraz potential sale of North American operations.”

“Stelco sale.”