Economy
Chicago Business Barometer remains dismal through July
Written by Brett Linton
July 31, 2024
The Chicago Business Barometer contracted further in July, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
The Barometer reading fell over two points from June to 45.3 in July. Any reading above 50 indicates improving business conditions, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction in business activity. At this time last year, the Barometer was also in contraction territory at 42.8.
June marks the eighth consecutive month the Barometer has indicated deteriorating business conditions. Since September 2022, the index has only indicated expansion once (November 2023).
The MNI report primarily accredits July’s fall to declines in production; that subcomponent decreased 8.5 points from June. The new orders, order backlogs, and employment subcomponents also eased 2-3 points from the month prior. Supplier deliveries was the only subcomponent to increase from June to July, rising 5.1 points to a 13-month high.
Respondents were asked two special questions this month:
Q: How do you see your business activity growing in the second half of 2024?
A: Over one third expect marginal growth in the coming months. 31% responded they foresee no growth, while 20% of respondents expect business activity to decline. Only 10% believe activity will increase by 5% or greater.
Q: Have you accelerated any plans to prepare earlier for this year’s holiday season?
A: Almost half responded they have not sped up any holiday preparations, whereas 17% responded they have. 20% said this was not applicable to their firm and the remainder responded they had not yet decided.
View the full release here.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Economy
Durable goods orders rise again in February
Transportation equipment led the increase, rising 1.5% to $98.3 billion.
Consumer confidence falls for fourth consecutive month
People remain concerned about inflation, trade policies, and tariffs.
Housing starts ticked up in February
Single-family starts last month hit a rate of 1.10 million, a month-over-month increase of 11.4%, census data shows.
Architecture billings continued to slide in February
The ABI is a leading indicator for near-term nonresidential construction activity and projects business conditions ~9-12 months down the road (the typical lead time between architecture billings and construction spending).
New York state manufacturing activity tumbles in March
After a modest recovery in February, business activity in New York state’s manufacturing sector declined sharply in March, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.