Economy

Manufacturing activity in New York state continues to soften

Written by Brett Linton

July 15, 2024

New York state saw a continued decline in manufacturing activity in July, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The General Business Conditions Index eased by 0.6 points in July to -6.6. This marks the eighth consecutive month of negative readings.

“Manufacturing conditions remained somewhat sluggish in New York State in July, though orders held steady and shipments edged slightly higher,” commented New York Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz. “Employment continued to contract, and capital spending plans were weak. However, firms remained fairly optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead.”

The new orders index remained flat for the second consecutive month, according to the survey, while the inventories index indicated lower inventories following three months of stability. Firms remain optimistic for future business conditions, as 41% of respondents expect improvement over the next six months. The full release is available here.

Last year, the Index peaked at 10.8 in June and has only indicated business condition improvements for eight months out of the last two-plus years.

On a three-month moving average basis (3MMA) the Index rose to -9.40 through July, now the least-negative reading of the year (Figure 1). Recall that in March the Index had reached -22.33, the fourth-lowest 3MMA figure within our 15-year data history, which was only higher than the months of April, May, and June 2020.

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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