New York manufacturing remains sluggish in June

“Employment continued contracting, and capital spending plans remained flat,” commented New York Fed economic research advisor Richard Deitz. “Despite lackluster conditions, optimism about the six-month outlook rose to its highest level in over two years.”

New orders held steady in June following significant declines the previous month, according to the survey. Shipments showed a slight increase, while delivery times shortened. Inventory levels remained flat for the third consecutive month. Overall, labor market conditions remain weak, as they have for months. Firms still anticipate business conditions will improve through the remainder of the year. The full survey release is available here.

Last year, the index peaked in May at 10.8. It has only indicated improving business conditions in eight months out of the last two-plus years.

On a three-month moving average basis (3MMA), the index rose in June to the highest reading so far this year of -11.97 (Figure 1). Recall that in March, the Index reached its fourth-lowest 3MMA figure within our 15-year data history. Lower readings were only been seen in March, April, and May 2020.

An interactive history of the Empire State Manufacturing Index is available here on our website.