HARDI members report a seller's market for galvanized sheet

“Demand is still strong for us,” one member said. “I feel real demand is still there but we’re also seeing a good bit of pull through of people buying ahead.” He reported strong volumes for October and November.

“Organic demand is there, but has not accelerated,” said another member. “In my opinion, I think it’s going to die off in December and into January.”

Another member commented that January and the beginning of the year typically bring on more market activity than people tend to remember. While there will be a lull through December, he predicts January will be strong for demand and pricing.

Several HARDI members said they are seeing increased demand for heavy-gauge galvanized sheet. A lot of battery plant, data center, military base, and food processing facility jobs require heavier gauges than what would typically be used for HVAC fabrication, one member said. He noted that a lot of these bigger, high-profile jobs will be going on for a while.

Several members agreed with his remarks, with another member saying his company is seeing a lot of 18-gauge volume, particularly for battery plants.

HARDI members reported many steel mills are running late getting galvanized product out the door.

Several members said there is no spot availability for the remainder of the year. Some mills have reportedly already closed their order books for January. For any who’ve yet to open their January books, there will be extremely limited availability, if any at all, HARDI members said.

One member said lead times are being pushed out due to a combination of factors: reduced capacity from planned and unplanned outages, the return of automotive after the UAW strike, and busy service centers. “It’s a big volume all at one time,” he noted.

Another member wondered if this isn’t an intentional move by the mills but said he doesn’t “want to start any conspiracy theories.”

“Why are the mills late? Because they can be,” said another. “I think they’re going to keep juicing this for as much as they can, especially while it’s contract negotiation season at the service centers.”

Galvanized sheet prices

On the Oct. 24 HARDI call, 74% of survey respondents predicted galv prices would be up more than $2 per cwt ($40 per net ton).

Their prediction was correct.

On this month’s call, a member reported prices are easily up by $10 per cwt ($200 per ton) over the last 30 days, with base spot prices to roughly $56-57 per cwt ($1,120-1,140 per ton).

SMU pegged the average galvanized price as of Nov. 14 to be $1,150 per ton, according to our interactive pricing tool.

On the Nov. 21 HARDI call, a majority of respondents (57%) foresee galvanized prices rising by more than $4 per cwt ($80 per ton) over the next 30 days.

Looking six months out, 35% predict galv prices will be flat (+/- $2 per cwt or $40 per ton), 13% predict up more than $2 per cwt ($40 per ton), and 30% said up more than $6 per cwt ($120 per ton).

A year from now, nearly half (48%) anticipate base prices for galvanized sheet to be $50-59 per cwt ($1,000-1,180 per ton) and another 48% predict them to be even higher than that.

Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call hosted by HARDI. The call is dedicated to a better understanding of the galvanized steel market. The participants are HARDI member companies, wholesalers who supply products to the construction markets. Also on the call are service centers and manufacturing companies that either buy or sell galvanized sheet and coil products used in the HVAC industry and are suppliers to the HARDI member companies.