Final Thoughts
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Steel Market Chatter This Week
Written by Becca Moczygemba
June 29, 2023
On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on a variety of subjects, including steel prices, demand levels, and import offers. Rather than summarizing the comments we received, we are sharing some of them in each buyer’s own words.
We want to hear your thoughts, too! Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our questionnaires.
Have steel prices bottomed? If not, when and at what price level do you think steel prices will bottom, and why?
“No, they have not. The recent price announcements will cause a small upward blip, but then we continue to decline.”
“I think one more month of slightly decreasing prices, then a steady rise.”
“Yes, prices are at the bottom for now. A second price increase notice to be released this or next week will start prices up.”
“No, they have not bottomed and will hit $825 per ton in August/September, mainly due to good supply and slowed demand.”
“No, the market is slowing down and steel consumption will drop in Q4.”
“Price increases stopped the slide temporarily, but will create a lower bottom as imports arrive and new orders are being placed.”
“In talking with several mill folks today, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of confidence that these hikes are sticking. So, no, we haven’t bottomed yet.”
“I feel prices will bottom in October with hot rolled in the low $800s”.
“Plate prices are still high and haven’t started to move down yet.”
Is demand improving, declining or stable, and why?
“Demand in construction has increased significantly for the past two months.”
“Demand is stable with future headwinds for commerical contruction looming.”
“Stable – market is in a holding pattern.”
“Discrete plate is stable. However, the seasonality slow down for July 4th holiday has kicked in.”
“Stable/declining – people are only buying what they need right now, especially with interest rates. Market is uncertain what the next few weeks/months will bring.”
“Stable, but we are quite seasonal and our overall tonnage is down compared to prior years.”
“Demand is better. Buyers laid off contract buying in June because pricing was at a peak. Spot buying was dead. Now we are seeing contract buying back to normal in July and spot buying as very active. I feel that buyers are willing to restock.”
Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year – and why?
“Inventory is moving at a decent clip. It certainly seems like some service centers are pretty slow, though.”
“Our inventory is moving just fine.”
“Slower – still having issues with finding employees.”
“Faster. Our goal was to sell more this year.”
“Slower because prices were declining.”
With domestic prices still at a premium to imports, are you finding offshore product more attractive? Why or why not?
“No. With long lead times and uncertain domestic pricing, better not take the risk.”
“Yes, 20% price differential landed.”
“Domestic will be a premium into 2024 as they are trying to hold their profit structure.”
“Yes. The gap in prices is too hard to ignore and domestic mills are too quick to significantly raise prices overnight.”
“No – too long of a lead time in a down market.”
“Yes – Canadian mills have been aggressive in the US as well. I believe they are getting the push as well from imports.”
“Discrete plate offers are not worth considering because of prices and product availability from quality suppliers.”
“Offshore plate prices look good compared to USA prices but lead times are too far out.”
PSA: If you have not looked at our latest SMU Market Survey results, they are available here on our website to all Premium members. We refer to this as our ‘Steel Market Trends Report,’ and we publish updates every other Friday. We encourage readers to explore the full results, as we simply cannot write about all of the information within. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Analysis tab and look under the “Survey Results” section for “Latest Survey Results.” Historical survey results are also available under “Survey Results History.” We will conduct our next market survey next week – contact us if you would like to have your company represented.
By Becca Moczygemba, becca@steelmarketupdate.com
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Becca Moczygemba
Read more from Becca MoczygembaLatest in Final Thoughts
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Final thoughts
Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.
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Final thoughts
Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)
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Final thoughts
I want to say a huge ‘thank you’ from all of us at SMU to all of you (more than 1,500!) who attended Steel Summit this year. We appreciate you taking time out of busy schedules to join us – whether that was up on stage, submitting thoughtful questions, or catching up over a drink and bite to eat. Also, a bit shoutout to everyone at SMU and at CRU who made this event possible. It’s no understatement to say that we have a fantastic team.
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Final thoughts
Day one and two of SMU's Steel Summit 2024 are officially in the books. We covered a lot of ground, and the agenda sure did deliver.
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Final thoughts
The big show is just about here. SMU Steel Summit will be getting underway on Monday. Where does the networking begin? I’d say at the airport. So don’t forget your business cards. And it can't hurt to wear a company golf shirt.