SMU Price Ranges: HRC Gains Slow, Plateau or Inflection Point?

HRC prices have risen only $20 per ton since March 21. From late February to mid-March, in contrast, prices shot up $240 per ton following a series of rapid-fire mill price hikes.

Prices for other products were mixed – with cold rolled up $20 per ton, galvanized up $25 per ton, Galvalume unchanged, and plate up $5 per ton.

SMU’s pricing momentum indicator remains pointed toward upward. We will continue to monitor the market for any clear signs of an inflection point.

Hot-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,120–1,200 per net ton ($56.00–60.00/cwt), with an average of $1,160 per ton ($58.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range increased by $20 per ton vs. one week ago, while the top end was down $10 per ton week-on-week (WoW). Our overall average is also up $5 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator for hot-rolled coil points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

*Hot-Rolled Lead Times: 4–8 weeks

Cold-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,340–1,400 per net ton ($67.00–70.00/cwt) with an average of $1,370 per ton ($68.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up by $40 per ton, while the top end was flat compared to a week ago. Our overall average is up $20 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on cold-rolled coil points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

*Cold-Rolled Lead Times: 6–10 weeks

Galvanized Coil: The SMU price range is $1,350–1,400 per net ton ($67.50–70.00/cwt) with an average of $1,375 per ton ($68.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up $50 per ton. The top end was unchanged WoW. Our overall average is up $25 per ton vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,447–1,497 per ton with an average of $1,472 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

*Galvanized Lead Times: 5–10 weeks

Galvalume Coil: The SMU price range is $1,340–1,440 per net ton ($67.00-72.00/cwt) with an average of $1,390 per ton ($69.50/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end and the top end of the range were unchanged vs. the week prior. Our overall average was, as a result, sideways when compared to one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,634–1,734 per ton with an average of $1,684 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

*Galvalume Lead Times: 8–10 weeks

Plate: The SMU price range is $1,530–1,590 per net ton ($76.50–79.50/cwt), with an average of $1,560 per ton ($78.00/cwt) FOB mill. The lower end of our range was up $10 per ton when compared to the prior week, while the the top end of the range was unchanged WoW. Our overall average was up $5 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on steel plate is pointing Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

*Plate Lead Times: 5–10 weeks

*Lead times are preliminary and will be updated on Thursday.

SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

By Michael Cowden, michael@steelmarketupdate.com