International Steel Prices

Lead Times Level Off After Rising Since Early January

March 30, 2023

Steel mill leads time were largely flat this week, a trend change in a year that has seen them mostly rising, according to SMU’s latest steel market survey data.

Case in point: hot-rolled coil lead times were flat for the first time since early January. We’ve noted a similar trend in prices, which tend to trend with lead times over time.

SMU’s hot rolled lead time is approximately 6.7 weeks, the same as it was during our last market check two weeks ago.

HR lead times were 3.9 weeks in early January before extending to nearly seven weeks earlier this month. Other sheet products and plate followed roughly the same trend.

0330 Lead Times Fig 1

Cold rolled lead times decreased from 8.1 weeks to 8.0 weeks, while Galvanized rose from 7.8 weeks to 8 weeks. Galvalume lead times dropped to 8 weeks from 8.6 weeks.

Plate lead times rose by 0.1 weeks to 6.1 weeks from 6 weeks in mid-March.

When asked about the future direction of lead times, 54% of survey respondents reported they expect lead times to be flat into May. About 13% percent think lead times will extend, while approximately 33% think they will contract. Premium members can view a longer history of this data series and others in our market trends report.

Looking at lead times on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can smooth out the variability of our bimonthly readings. As a 3MMA, lead times for all products are either flat or up modestly over the past month. The latest 3MMA lead time for hot rolled inched up 0.3 weeks to 5.8 weeks. Cold rolled saw a 0.2-week increase, moving up to 7.2 weeks. Galvanized lead times increased by 0.2 weeks to 7 weeks, while Galvalume lead times were flat at 7.5 weeks. Plate lead times were also unchanged at 5.4 weeks.

0330 Lead Times Fig 2

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when the order is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.

By Becca Moczygemba, becca@steelmarketupdate.com

Becca Moczygemba

Becca Moczygemba is a reporter and editor for Steel Market Update. She has been in the steel industry since 2017, specializing in flat-rolled products. Prior to joining SMU, she held positions at Mitsui & Co. and Kloeckner Metals. Becca has a BA in Organizational/Corporate Communication from the University of Houston and an MBA from Norwich University. Contact Becca at becca@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1000.