SMU Community Spotlight

SMU Price Ranges: Flat-Rolled Price Gains Slow

March 21, 2023

Flat-rolled steel prices are still trending up in the wake of recent mill tag hikes, albeit at a slower pace this week. We’ve seen a rather notable market cycle over the past 15-plus weeks with repeated price hikes. Is it starting to peter out, or just catching its breath?

Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have increased by a minimum of $30 per ton week on week (WoW) since late November. Through February alone, tags rose on average by more than $65 per ton weekly and have surged by more than $525 per ton – an 85% jump – since the rally first began last Thanksgiving.

But we haven’t seen an official mill price announcement since Monday, March 13, when Cliffs last came out with a $100-per-ton ($5 per cwt) notice and a new base price for hot band of $1,200 per ton.

Does this mean anything? It’s far too early to tell if this is the beginning of a trend shift or just another wrinkle in the current price cycle. Recent data still suggests that market sentiment is pointing towards higher prices in the near term, though the torrid pace we’ve seen over the past couple of months does have a shelf life.

Sources have told SMU that there has been an influx of interest for steel as prices are being driven higher, though demand is still largely stable.

Steel Market Update’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,140 per ton on average, up $25 per ton from last week. Cold-rolled (up $15 per ton), galvanized (up $45 per ton), and Galvalume (up $20 per ton) were all up again, though at a far slower rate than the triple-digit price jumps seen the prior week. Plate also moved higher, up another $10 per ton WoW.

All our sheet and plate momentum indicators continue to point upward.

Hot-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,080–1,200 per net ton ($54.00–60.00/cwt), with an average of $1,140 per ton ($57.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range increased by $30 per ton, while the top end rose $20 per ton vs. one week ago. Our overall average is up $25 per ton week on week (WoW). Our price momentum indicator on hot-rolled steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Hot-Rolled Lead Times: 5–9 weeks

Cold-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,240–1,400 per net ton ($62.00–70.00/cwt) with an average of $1,320 per ton ($66.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up by $10 per ton, while the top end rose by $20 per ton compared to one week ago. Our overall average is up $15 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on cold-rolled steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Cold-Rolled Lead Times: 6–10 weeks

Galvanized Coil: The SMU price range is $1,240–1,400 per net ton ($62.00–70.00/cwt) with an average of $1,320 per ton ($66.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up $40 per ton, while the top end rose by $50 per ton WoW. Our overall average is up $45 per ton vs. the prior week. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,337–1,497 per ton with an average of $1,417 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 6–10 weeks

Galvalume Coil: The SMU price range is $1,280–1,400 per net ton ($64.00-70.00/cwt) with an average of $1,340 per ton ($67.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of the range was up $80 per ton vs. the week prior, while the top end of our range decreased by $40 per ton compared to one week ago. Our overall average is up $20 per ton from one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,574–1,694 per ton with an average of $1,634 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 7–10 weeks

Plate: The SMU price range is $1,510–1,560 per net ton ($75.50–78.00/cwt), with an average of $1,530 per ton ($76.50/cwt) FOB mill. The lower end of the range rose $30 per ton WoW, while the top end of our range was unchanged compared to one week ago. Our overall average increased by $10 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on steel plate is pointing Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Plate Lead Times: 4–8 weeks

SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

SMU WklyPrices 032123 Fig1

By David Schollaert, david@steelmarketupdate.com

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.