Economy

SMU Price Ranges: Flat-Rolled Prices Press Sharply Higher Again

March 14, 2023

Flat-rolled steel prices continue to rise in response to repeated mill pricing announcements, a trend we’ve seen nearly weekly since Monday, Nov. 28, 2022. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices have surged by $490 per ton – a 78% jump – since Cleveland-Cliffs and US Steel kicked off the craze with $60-per-ton price hikes.

On Monday, Cliffs came out with yet another notice – up an extra $100 per ton ($5 per cwt) and setting a new base price for hot band of $1,200 per ton. Monday’s announcement came after Nucor and ArcelorMittal on March 3 increased prices and targeted $1,150 per ton as a base price for HRC.

The latest round of price hikes has again quickly made its way into the market. We’ve seen HRC prices increase by a minimum of $30 per ton week-on-week (WoW) since late November. Market sentiment suggests that mills will keep pushing pricing higher in the near term. But some speculate that this torrid pace has a shelf life because it’s largely supply-driven with demand mostly steady.

Steel Market Update’s hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,115 per ton on average, up $40 per ton from last week. And it’s not just hot band that’s moving up. Cold-rolled (up $105 per ton), galvanized (up $100 per ton), and Galvalume (up $120 per ton) all saw triple-digit price jumps vs. the prior week. Plate also moved higher, up $10 per ton WoW.

All our sheet and plate momentum indicators continue to point upward.

Hot-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,050–1,180 per net ton ($52.50–59.00/cwt), with an average of $1,115 per ton ($55.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The bottom end of our range increased by $50 per ton, while the top end rose $30 per ton vs. one week ago. Our overall average is up $40 per ton week on week (WoW). Our price momentum indicator on hot-rolled steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Hot-Rolled Lead Times: 4–9 weeks

Cold-Rolled Coil: The SMU price range is $1,230–1,380 per net ton ($61.50–69.00/cwt) with an average of $1,305 per ton ($65.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range was up by $130 per ton, while the top end rose by $80 per ton compared to one week ago. Our overall average is up $105 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on cold-rolled steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Cold-Rolled Lead Times: 5–9 weeks

Galvanized Coil: The SMU price range is $1,100–1,350 per net ton ($60.00–67.50/cwt) with an average of $1,275 per ton ($63.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both thhe lower end of the range and the top en rose by $100 per ton WoW. Our overall average is up $100 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on galvanized steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,297–1,447 per ton with an average of $1,372 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4–10 weeks

Galvalume Coil: The SMU price range is $1,200–1,400 per net ton ($60.00-72.00/cwt) with an average of $1,320 per ton ($66.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of the range was up $100 per ton vs. the week prior, while the top end of our range was up $140 per ton compared to one week ago. Our overall average is up $120 per ton from one week ago. Our price momentum indicator on Galvalume steel points to Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU price range is $1,494–1,734 per ton with an average of $1,614 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 7–9 weeks

Plate: The SMU price range is $1,480–1,560 per net ton ($74.00–78.00/cwt), with an average of $1,520 per ton ($76.00/cwt) FOB mill. The lower end of the range was unchanged WoW, while the top end of our range rose by $20 per ton compared to one week ago. Our overall average increased by $10 per ton WoW. Our price momentum indicator on steel plate is pointing Higher, meaning we expect prices to increase over the next 30 days.

Plate Lead Times: 4–7 weeks

SMU Note: Below is a graphic showing our hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized, Galvalume, and plate price history. This data is available here on our website with our interactive pricing tool. If you need help navigating the website or need to know your login information, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

SMU WklyPrices 022128 Fig1

By David Schollaert, david@steelmarketupdate.com

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. Based in CRU’s Pittsburgh office, David can be reached at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.