SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index Dips to 18-Month Low

SMU’s Future Buyers Sentiment Index, which measures buyers’ feelings about business conditions three to six months in the future, dropped 13 points to +51, in line with early 2021 levels. Back in April and early May, we saw record high Future Sentiment readings (the highest recorded in our 13.5-year history).

Recall that as steel prices peaked last September, Current Sentiment reached an all-time high of +84, while Future Sentiment peaked two months later at +78. The lowest levels over the past decade both occurred in April 2020, at -8 and +10 respectively.

Measured as a three-month moving average, the Current Sentiment 3MMA slipped 4 points to +72.50 last week, and the Future Sentiment 3MMA declined 4 points to +69.33. Four weeks ago, the Current Sentiment 3MMA reached the highest level seen since December 2021, +77.83. Future Sentiment 3MMA reached a record high of +74.67 in mid-May, surpassing the previous record of +73.67 in March 2017, but has eased each with each reading since then.

What SMU Survey Respondents Had to Say

“We have a strong backlog and great opportunities to expand further.”

“The first [half of the year] will be very nice, the back half will be tough (with regards to making money).”

“A just-in-time model is perfect for times of buying anxiety.”

“High inflation and supply problems threatening construction.”

“I don’t see the supply chain pipeline getting any better.”

“Our customers are full and on the sidelines – it’s very hard to even entice them.”

“Cash flow issues.”

“Contract business continues to perform well and our inventories are aligned with expectations.”

“Need to get through these drastic price swings (quarter to quarter). Once pricing begins to normalize, we can better manage the quarterly swings.”

Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior.

About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index

SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index is a measurement of the current attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America regarding how they feel about their company’s opportunity for success in today’s market. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry.

Positive readings run from +10 to +100. A positive reading means the meter on the right-hand side of our home page will fall in the green area indicating optimistic sentiment. Negative readings run from -10 to -100. They result in the meter on our homepage trending into the red, indicating pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace. Sentiment is measured via Steel Market Update surveys that are conducted twice per month. We display the meter on our home page.

We send invitations to participate in our survey to more than 600 North American companies. Our normal response rate is 100-150 companies. Approximately 30 percent are manufacturers, 45 percent are service centers/distributors, and the remainder are steel mills, trading companies or toll processors involved in the steel business.

Click here to view an interactive graphic of the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index or the SMU Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index.

By Brett Linton, Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com