SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Respondents Beat Forecasts in May, Concerned About June
Written by Michael Cowden
June 9, 2022
May was a good month for market participants surveyed by SMU, most of whom reported meeting or beating expectations then.
Approximately 55% of survey respondents said they met their business forecasts last month, 25% said they exceeded them, and only 20% said they missed forecast.
The big question will be June, which has seen steel price declines accelerate amid increasing concerns about demand and the broader economy.
The chart below comes from a new question that we’ve introduced to our survey, full results of which will be released on Friday. We’ll update it on a regular basis going forward.
Here is what some survey participants had to say about the issue of beating, meeting or missing forecasts.
“Exceeded volume targets.”
“We were able to pass on the price increases.”
“It was a good month, but as Jamie Dimon might say, the hurricane is here”
“Several large customers pushed back or reduced their forecasts”
“Slowed down end of month.”
“Forecast softened, orders moved out.”
“Logistics problems were our main reason” for not meeting forecast.
“Missed by over 10%.”
Editor’s note: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said at an investor conference earlier this month that economic conditions might seem “fine” now but that “a hurricane” was coming. “You’d better brace yourself,” he said. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”
By Michael Cowden, Michael@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Michael Cowden
Read more from Michael CowdenLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.