SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Respondents Beat Forecasts in May, Concerned About June
Written by Michael Cowden
June 9, 2022
May was a good month for market participants surveyed by SMU, most of whom reported meeting or beating expectations then.
Approximately 55% of survey respondents said they met their business forecasts last month, 25% said they exceeded them, and only 20% said they missed forecast.
The big question will be June, which has seen steel price declines accelerate amid increasing concerns about demand and the broader economy.
The chart below comes from a new question that we’ve introduced to our survey, full results of which will be released on Friday. We’ll update it on a regular basis going forward.
Here is what some survey participants had to say about the issue of beating, meeting or missing forecasts.
“Exceeded volume targets.”
“We were able to pass on the price increases.”
“It was a good month, but as Jamie Dimon might say, the hurricane is here”
“Several large customers pushed back or reduced their forecasts”
“Slowed down end of month.”
“Forecast softened, orders moved out.”
“Logistics problems were our main reason” for not meeting forecast.
“Missed by over 10%.”
Editor’s note: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said at an investor conference earlier this month that economic conditions might seem “fine” now but that “a hurricane” was coming. “You’d better brace yourself,” he said. “JPMorgan is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.”
By Michael Cowden, Michael@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Michael Cowden
Read more from Michael CowdenLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.
SMU Survey: Buyers report more price flexibility from mills
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices fall
Current Sentiment Index dropped six points to +42 this week compared to two weeks earlier. It has fallen in every successive survey since reaching a 2025 high of +66 on Feb. 19.
March service center shipments and inventories report
Steel service center shipments and inventories report through March 2024.
Apparent steel supply contracts in February
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market in February receded from January’s peak, according to our analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.